Fallout of Hormuz crisis creeps toward daily life as oil constraints come for ramyeon

It started with gas stations. Now it may hit supermarkets. The fallout of the Iran war is inching closer to everyday life in Korea, with the production of staples such as ramyeon on the brink of catastrophic disruption if the Hormuz crisis drags on.

Ramyeon products are displayed at a large supermarket in Seoul on March 13. [YONHAP]

It started with gas stations. Now it may hit supermarkets. The fallout of the Iran war is inching closer to everyday life in Korea, with the production of staples such as ramyeon on the brink of catastrophic disruption if the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz drags on.

The recent deal between Korea and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to import 18 million barrels of crude oil, announced on Wednesday, highlights the severity of the current crisis.

Presidential chief of staff Kang Hoon-sik, who returned from a visit to the UAE as a special envoy for President Lee Jae Myung, said the Gulf country had pledged to prioritize supply to Korea.

“The UAE clearly promised that Korea is the number one priority in crude oil supply,” Kang said Wednesday.

Including the previously fixed 6 million barrels secured on March 6, Korea will import a total of 24 million barrels of crude oil from the UAE.

Presidential chief of staff Kang Hoon-sik, center, is seen during a senior aides' meeting presided over by President Lee Jae Myung, right, at the Blue House in Jongno District, central Seoul, on March 19. [JOINT PRESS CORPS]

The promise from the UAE and Korea’s response underscores growing supply risks as tensions in the Middle East escalate. Iran is intensifying its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s three major maritime chokepoints, along with the Strait of Malacca and the Suez Canal.

“The Strait of Hormuz situation won’t return to its prewar status,” wrote Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the Iranian parliament, in a social media post on Tuesday.

Iran means it. Drone boats disguised as fishing vessels have begun suicide attacks, with naval mines and missile deployments also anticipated.

The Callisto tanker sits anchored in Port Sultan Qaboos as the traffic is down in the Strait of Hormuz, amid the Iran war, in Muscat, Oman, on March 12. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

Korea's reliance on Hormuz

About 15.7 million barrels of oil passed through the strait daily last year — more than one-third of all global seaborne oil shipments.

Korea, located about 6,500 kilometers (4,040 miles) away from the strait, still faces significant exposure. About 70 percent of the country's crude oil imports come from the Middle East, and 90 percent of that passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

If the past three weeks were marked by soaring oil prices, the focus has now shifted to supply itself. High prices are a cost issue — but shortages pose a fundamentally different risk.

Industry sources warn of a potential supply crisis as early as April or May. Refiners’ stockpiled reserves could begin to run out as early as April.

Members of a task force composed of police officers from the Southern Regional Coast Guard and the Busan Coast Guard are seen conducting a special crackdown on maritime oil distribution on a refueling vessel docked at Pier 4 of Busan Port in Busan on March 19. [YONHAP]

Even with additional imports, limits remain. Korea’s total oil reserves stand at about 190 million barrels. The government says this could last 208 days, but that estimate excludes exports.

Last year, domestic refiners exported 485.35 million barrels — 51.9 percent of total crude imports of 935.06 million barrels. Including exports, Korea’s daily oil consumption is about 2.8 million barrels, meaning reserves would last roughly 68 days when counting both domestic consumption and export volumes together.

“If reserve releases begin and there is no end in sight to the conflict, markets could fall into panic on a daily basis,” an industry expert said. “In that sense, concerns about a crisis in April or May are not unfounded.”

Ramyeon products are displayed at a large supermarket in Seoul on March 12. [NEWS1]

‘Naphtha shock’ also imminent

The risks extend beyond crude oil. As of December of last year, there were 41 items heavily dependent — by more than 70 percent — on imports from the Middle East and nearby regions, including helium used in semiconductors and gypsum essential for construction, according to the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy.

The impact of the Iran war is already spreading across industries through what has been described as a “naphtha shock.”

Polyethylene — a key material for packaging used in products such as instant noodles and snacks — is derived from naphtha. Companies such as Yeochun NCC have already declared a force majeure, invoking an exemption from contractual obligations due to unforeseen circumstances.

“If the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues, some companies could face shutdowns as early as the end of this month,” a petrochemical industry source said.

“We are closely monitoring packaging material inventories,” a food industry source said. “If the conflict continues for more than a month, production disruptions could occur.”

Mattresses are on display at a product fair held at Coex in Gangnam District, southern Seoul on May 8, 2025. [YONHAP]

Everyday life at risk

The cosmetics industry is also feeling pressure, as materials for containers are derived from naphtha supplied by petrochemical companies. Furniture, bedding and automobile industries are similarly vulnerable.

“At this rate, we may soon face a situation where mattresses and beds cannot be produced,” a bedding industry source said, citing shortages of polyol, a key material used in polyurethane foam.

Supply constraints on polyol are also affecting automotive seat production, raising concerns about potential disruptions in auto production.

Refiners are scrambling to secure alternative supplies from countries such as the United States and Venezuela, but they may very well be nothing more than a band-aid patching over a much larger issue.

Fuel prices are displayed at a gas station in Seoul on March 19. [NEWS1]

Middle Eastern crude takes about 25 days to reach Korea, while North American shipments take 35 to 40 days. Moreover, U.S. crude is mostly light oil, less compatible with domestic refineries designed to process the more viscous Middle Eastern crude. Warning lights start to turn red

Domestic manufacturers could adjust their facilities to the new environment in theory, but such options simply aren't viable or sustainable, according to experts.

“If supply risks had been properly addressed from the beginning, demand could also be controlled,” said Kim Hyung-gun, a professor of economics and statistics at Kangwon National University, criticizing the government’s response. “Instead, the government introduced a price cap — essentially telling people not to worry about fuel costs and keep driving, which may not fit the current situation.”

Critics also point out inconsistencies between imposing price controls and considering vehicle restrictions.

A map showing the Strait of Hormuz is seen in this illustration taken June 22, 2025. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

Dubai crude traded in Singapore reached $153.24 per barrel on Monday — more than double the $71.24 recorded at the end of February.

Freight rates for very large crude carriers between the Middle East and China have also surged, reaching $470,000 per day as of Tuesday — triple the $157,000 recorded on Feb. 20.

“Even if the blockade is lifted, normalization could take more than twice as long as the duration of the disruption,” the Korea Ocean Business Corporation warned.

The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources has raised the resource security alert for crude oil from “attention” to “caution” and designated naphtha as an economic security item to strengthen management and support measures.

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom. BY JANG WON-SEOK, AHN HYO-SEONG, LIM SUN-YOUNG [lim.jeongwon@joongang.co.kr]