Seoul warns of end to North Korean regime over reaction to alleged drone incursion

Seoul's Defense Ministry warned that the North Korean regime will be brought to its end after Pyongyang issued a threat in the wake of an alleged drone incursion to spread anti-regime leaflets.

An image of what North Korea claims is a South Korean unmanned aerial vehicle (translated), left, and flyers (translated), right, released by the state-run Korean Central News Agency Friday. [CHUN YU-JIN]

[NEWS ANALYSIS]

Seoul's Defense Ministry warned Sunday that North Korea will "see the end of its regime" if it harms South Koreans as the two sides exchanged bellicose rhetoric over an alleged drone incursion above Pyongyang over the weekend. On Friday evening, the North Korean Foreign Ministry claimed Seoul sent unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) carrying propaganda leaflets to its capital on Oct. 3 and Wednesday and Thursday of last week through a statement carried on its state-run Korea Central News Agency.

Kim Yo-jong, sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un [YONHAP]

North Korea's Kim Yo-jong, the powerful sister of leader Kim Jong-un, accused South Korea of directly committing a provocation by sending drones to drop propaganda leaflets over Pyongyang, thus infringing on North Korean sovereignty, in a late-night press statement Saturday.

"The moment that a drone of South Korea is discovered in the sky over our capital city once again will certainly lead to a horrible disaster," she said.

South Korea's Defense Ministry responded to Kim's statement by calling it "a typical scheme to fuel domestic discord within the South and to shift focus."

"North Korea speaking of a 'horrible disaster' and 'attack time,' even failing to confirm the subject of the so-called drone's leaflet launch, only reflects the deep anxiety felt by the dictatorship," it said. "We clearly warn that if North Korea inflicts harm on the safety of our people, that day will be the end of the North Korean regime."

South Korean National Security Advisor Shin Won-sik speaks in a press briefing at the Yongsan presidential office in central Seoul on Sept. 1. [NEWS1]

South Korean National Security Advisor Shin Won-sik similarly assessed North Korea’s actions as internal control tactics and argued that North Korea is emphasizing external threats to consolidate domestic power.

"They seemed to have decided they benefit more from emphasizing that the South is sending drones to threaten them and thus have to prepare strongly, rather than suffer the losses incurred from revealing any breach of their air defenses," Shin said In an interview with the local broadcaster KBS earlier in the day. "This is evidence of North Korea's internal instability."

Shin also downplayed foreign media speculation that North Korea might resort to a "dramatic move" in the coming months, such as the first armed conflict since the 1950-53 Korean War ended in an armistice rather than a peace treaty.

"The possibility of war has always existed since the Korean War," he said. "Unless North Korea is determined to commit suicide, I believe it cannot think of starting a war."

Along with the ministry's statement, North Korea released photos that allegedly captured a South Korean drone in its skies, as well as photos of supposed anti-Pyongyang leaflets. While the leaflets were blurred, decipherable text appeared to criticize North Korea's spending on weapons instead of food for its people.

Following the statement, North Korea also launched some 20 trash-laden balloons over the border from Friday night to Saturday morning, according to South Korea's military. Some 10 of them landed in Cheorwon in Gangwon, none of which contained dangerous materials.

Seoul refused to confirm that it committed the drone infiltration, responding with ambiguity for "strategic" reasons.

South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun initially denied the accusation during a parliamentary audit, saying the South did not send a drone to the North and that he was "not aware" of the situation.

"Our basic position is that we can’t confirm whether North Korea’s claims are true," Kim told lawmakers after he was briefed on the situation. When asked to clarify, Kim repeated the stance, saying, "Strategically, we can only say that we can’t confirm it."

The Joint Chief of Staffs stated that responsibility for recent provocations, including the alleged drone incident, lies with North Korea. They strongly urged Pyongyang to exercise restraint and "not act rashly," emphasizing that any threat to the safety of South Korean citizens would be met with “resolute and fierce retaliation."

An image of anti-Pyongyang leaflets allegedly sent by South Korea released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency Friday. [YONHAP]

Experts remain skeptical, as the images released by North Korea purportedly showing the drone were deemed insufficient to verify the regime's allegations. Some analysts even suggested that private South Korean organizations may have been responsible, although doubts linger about whether such groups have the capability to target Pyongyang with drones as North Korea said the drones flew over its Workers' Party's complex building.

"We need to assess whether these private organizations have the ability to repeatedly send drones over Pyongyang and drop leaflets, and whether such operations would be possible without external help," Prof. Yang Moo-jin of the University of North Korean Studies said.

Despite uncertainties surrounding the authenticity of the drone claims, experts agree that North Korea is seizing the opportunity to heighten hostility toward South Korea and justify Kim Jong-un's December 2022 declaration of the "two hostile states."

North Korea’s state-run newspaper, the Rodong Sinmun, published the Foreign Ministry's statement on its front page on Saturday, and the next day published the outraged reactions of North Korean citizens following the alleged incursion. This marks a shift from previous incidents, where North Korea retaliated by sending garbage-filled balloons into South Korea without publicizing it domestically.

"North Korea aims to amplify security concerns in South Korea to their highest, thereby fostering anti-government sentiment and ultimately cutting off the activities of civilian groups that send leaflets to the North," said Prof. Lim Eul-chul of Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies.

"At the same time, North Korea may be using the alleged leaflet launches from drones as a pretext to escalate hostilities with the South to the highest level, further solidifying internal cohesion and justifying its constitutional amendments" designating South Korea as the "No. 1 hostile country" and remove references to "peaceful unification," Lim suggested.

While South Korean officials have downplayed the likelihood of war, some experts remain concerned that Pyongyang’s aggressive rhetoric, such as warnings of "immediate action," could be justification for a military provocation and lead to increased tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

"Without addressing fundamental issues that encompass issues like the trash-laden balloons, drones and leaflets, ... a military conflict [between the two Koreas] is a matter of time," Prof. Lim said, noting that the current approach of focusing solely on immediate retaliation and pressure would only lead to further clashes.

"North Korea might respond to future drone incidents with similar tactics, including drone deployments, electronic jamming, or even downing drones to obtain evidence for psychological warfare." said Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification.

BY SEO JI-EUN [seo.jieun1@joongang.co.kr]