South Koreans believe climate change an equal threat to North's nukes: Survey

South Koreans now believe climate change poses an equal threat to North Korea’s nuclear program, a recent survey shows, as the nation experienced unprecedented heat over the summer.

People escape the summer heat under a shade in Yeouido Park in western Seoul on Sept. 18. [YONHAP]

South Koreans now believe climate change poses an equal threat to North Korea’s nuclear program, a recent survey shows, as the nation experienced unprecedented heat over the summer.

The web-based survey, conducted from Aug. 26 to 28 on 1,006 adults aged 18 and over, was conducted jointly by the JoongAng Ilbo, an affiliate of the Korea JoongAng Daily, and the Seoul-based think tank East Asia Institute (EAI).

It found that 51.2 percent of respondents identified “climate change and environmental issues” as the top threat facing South Korea.

This was nearly identical to the 51.1 percent who cited “North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats.” Other threats mentioned were the U.S.-China strategic rivalry at 42.5 percent and the spread of protectionism and technological competition at 39.7 percent.

This marks a significant change from a similar survey conducted a year earlier, where 56.3 percent of respondents viewed North Korea’s nuclear threat as the greatest danger, followed by 55 percent citing protectionism and tech competition. Only 41 percent saw climate change as a significant concern, highlighting a clear reversal in the rankings over the past year.

Public awareness of soft security issues like climate and health, traditionally viewed as less critical than military threats, has sharply increased, the EAI’s analysis of the results suggested. These concerns now rival the long-standing emphasis on “hard security” issues such as military threats from North Korea.

The timing of the survey, which coincided with record-breaking heatwaves across South Korea with the average national temperatures exceeding 28 degrees Celsius (82 degrees Fahrenheit), is also believed to have played a major role in the heightened concern over climate change.

Experts also point to the possibility that North Korea’s nuclear threat is increasingly seen as a constant, unchanging issue. Despite the seriousness of North Korea’s nuclear advancements, many South Koreans now view it as an old threat with little expectation for major developments.

A person walks with a parasol to block the extreme heat in downtown Seoul on Sept. 29. [YONHAP]

Generational divide in threat perception

The survey also highlighted generational differences in how South Koreans perceive threats. Older respondents were more likely to see North Korea’s nuclear program as the biggest danger, while younger people were more concerned about climate change.

For instance, 56.3 percent of respondents in their 60s and 71.6 percent of those over 70 identified North Korea’s nuclear threat as the top issue. In contrast, only 44.8 percent of those in their 60s and 17.7 percent of those over 70 saw climate change as the greatest threat.

However, among respondents in their 30s, 52.3 percent saw climate change as the most pressing concern, compared to 43.6 percent who cited North Korea’s nuclear threat. Similarly, 58.2 percent of those in their 40s considered climate change the top threat, compared to 43.9 percent for North Korea.

"The younger generation’s heightened concern for non-traditional security issues, such as climate change, is becoming increasingly evident," said EAI President Sohn Yul. "Political circles have yet to address these rising concerns fully, remaining focused on more traditional security issues."

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un aims a weapon as he visits a special forces training base at an undisclosed location in North Korea on Sept. 11 in this photo that appeared in the state-run KCNA two days later. [YONHAP]

Preference for neutrality in U.S.-China rivalry

The survey also explored South Koreans’ views on the country’s position in the escalating U.S.-China rivalry. When asked which side South Korea should support in the event of serious conflict, 41.6 percent of respondents said they would back the United States, while only 2.9 percent supported China.

However, the largest group, 46.8 percent, favored maintaining a neutral stance. This suggests that while nearly half of South Koreans prefer neutrality in the U.S.-China rivalry, those forced to choose lean heavily toward the U.S.

Moreover, 77.8 percent of respondents believe the South Korea-U.S. alliance should "evolve beyond merely addressing North Korea’s military threat, expanding to play a role in resolving broader regional and global issues."

Although slightly down from 81.8 percent last year, this figure remains overwhelmingly high. Notably, the percentage of those who “strongly agree” with this position tripled from 8.3 percent last year to 25 percent this year.

Majority support for joint response to Taiwan crisis

Regarding potential conflicts in the Taiwan Strait, 54.1 percent of respondents supported joint South Korea-U.S. action if tensions escalate.

However, when asked about specific responses in the event of military conflict, the largest group at 44.2 percent favored "providing humanitarian aid," indicating a reluctance to become directly involved in military action. Other responses included providing weapons and ammunition at 15.6 percent, deploying non-combat troops at 12.2 percent and sending combat troops at 5.9 percent.

In total, 33.7 percent of respondents supported some form of military assistance.

This shows that while South Koreans support cooperation with the U.S. in addressing regional conflicts, they hesitate to become directly involved in military engagements.

BY CHUNG YEONG-GYO, PARK HYUN-JU [seo.jieun1@joongang.co.kr]