Confusion over alleged S. Korean drone intrusion: Who's behind it?

South Korea maintains ambiguous stance, while North Korea fails to provide clear evidence

This image, released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Friday, shows a purported drone (in large circle) and a pack of leaflets (in small circle) that Pyongyang claims were sent by South Korea. (Yonhap)

North Korea's recent claim that the South had sent uncrewed aerial vehicles over Pyongyang three times since last week has stirred a contentious debate on the veracity of the claim and the implications. As of Sunday, the South Korean government has maintained a noncommittal stance, neither confirming nor denying the allegations, while North Korea has yet to present definitive evidence.

In a message delivered Friday through the Korean Central News Agency, the North's Foreign Ministry claimed that drones sent by South Korea had infiltrated Pyongyang, carrying propaganda leaflets, on three occasions -- Oct. 3 as well as Wednesday and Thursday of last week. To back the claim, it released a photo marked "1:13 a.m. on Oct. 9," showing two objects in the night sky labeled as an enemy-sent uncrewed aerial vehicle and a leaflet bundle. It also threatened to respond with force if such flights were to occur again.

"(The move) is a blatant infringement of the sacred national sovereignty and safety, and a violent violation of international law," the North's Foreign Ministry said, calling for South Korea to immediately end its "dangerous provocation" that could lead to "an armed conflict that could even escalate into war."

This image, released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Friday, purports to show anti-Pyongyang leaflets allegedly sent by South Korea to the North. (Yonhap)

In its initial response Friday, the South’s Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun denied any military involvement.

"We have not done that. I am not aware of the situation," he told lawmakers during a parliamentary session.

However, after a brief adjournment for an emergency meeting, the minister revised his earlier remarks, stating, "Our position is that we cannot verify the truth behind North Korea's allegations." He further added that there was a possibility that the North had orchestrated the incident themselves. The Joint Chiefs of Staff also conveyed via a text message to reporters Friday that they "cannot authenticate North Korea's claims."

On Sunday, National Security Adviser Shin Won-sik threw his weight behind this view. While appearing on TV, he said that Pyongyang's public accusations might be a ploy to exaggerate threats to consolidate internal control, implying signs of instability within the regime.

“Acknowledging such claims only serves North Korea's intent to cause internal discord within our nation," he said. "Based on experience, the best response is to ignore it."

With the South Korean government maintaining its ambiguous stance and North Korea failing to provide clear evidence, opinions in Seoul remain divided over what actually occurred.

Local reports cited military insiders as well as private experts and observers who deemed deploying a drone over North Korea, particularly for leaflet dissemination, as highly improbable as a direct action by South Korea's military, given the potential violation of the armistice agreement. They noted that initiating such measures would be unlikely, even in response to North Korean provocations, as it could risk further escalating the conflict.

There is speculation that South Korean activist organizations might be responsible, though no group has claimed responsibility so far. As one example, Fighters for a Free North Korea, led by North Korean defector Park Sang-hak, has been actively sending anti-North Korea propaganda leaflets across the border. However, Park has denied any involvement in this particular case.

An expert on North Korea, who requested anonymity, said, "Given that North Korea has even released photos and considering the South Korean government's passive stance toward leaflet activities, there's reason to suspect that drones may indeed have been sent."

Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies, suggests that the North might have fabricated the scenario to heighten tensions or justify measures against leaflet activities from the South.

Meanwhile, Kim Yo-jong, the influential sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, issued a warning Sunday threatening a "horrible disaster" for South Korea should drones allegedly fly over Pyongyang again. In a statement via the state-run KCNA, she remarked, "We will take a strong corresponding retaliatory action in disregard of ingredient in case drones carrying anti-DPRK political motivation rubbish from the ROK across the border infiltrate into the territorial sky of the DPRK." The ROK and DPRK are the acronyms for the official names of the South and the North, respectively.

After Kim Yo-jong made the threat in a commentary, the South's defense ministry warned North Korea on Sunday that it would see "the end of its regime" if it caused any harm to its people.

"We clearly warn that if North Korea inflicts harm on the safety of our people, that day will be the end of the North Korean regime," the defense ministry said in a statement released to reporters.

The recent escalation between the two Koreas is part of ongoing tensions that have persisted since late May. In retaliation against anti-Pyongyang leaflets sent by defectors and activists from South Korea, North Korea has launched thousands of trash-carrying balloons across the border. Since May 28, when North Korea released its first batch of trash balloons this year, the regime has deployed 28 batches for a total of more than 6,000 such balloons, as of Friday.

By Lee Jaeeun(jenn@heraldcorp.com)