Dollar-won rate crosses 1,500 mark again on oil price fluctuations and market volatility

International oil prices have been fluctuating wildly throughout the week as tensions in the Middle East escalate, fueling volatility in global markets and pushing the dollar-won exchange rate back above the 1,500 won mark in overnight trading.

The dollar-won exchange rate is seen on an electronic board at the dealing room of Hana Bank in Jung District, central Seoul, on March 13. [YONHAP]

International oil prices have been fluctuating wildly throughout the week as tensions in the Middle East escalate, fueling volatility in global markets and pushing the dollar-won exchange rate back above the 1,500 won mark in overnight trading.

The dollar-won exchange rate rose sharply in overnight trading in the Seoul foreign exchange market and moved back above the 1,500-won level — the psychological threshold for the currency — financial industry data showed Friday.

The won had closed daytime trading at 1,493.7 won to the dollar, weaker by 12.5 won from the previous session. The waning trend continued during post-trading hours to plunge to 1,500.62 won during overnight trading.

The exchange rate had already touched the 1,500-won mark on March 3, when it hit 1,505.8 won during trading for the first time since March 2009. It crossed the barrier again just 10 days later.

The volatility in exchange rates has largely been driven by surging oil prices and growing risk aversion amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.

On Thursday, Brent crude futures for May delivery settled at $100.46 per barrel on the ICE Futures exchange, jumping 9.2 percent from the previous session.

Although Brent briefly rose above $100 intraday on Monday, this marked the first time the benchmark closed above that level since August 2022 — about three years and seven months ago. West Texas Intermediate crude futures also surged 9.7 percent to close at $95.73 cents per barrel.

A tourist watches the MT Desert Kite oil tanker carrying Russian oil at Narara Marine National Park in the Arabian Sea, Gujarat, India, on March 11. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

Oil prices showed extreme volatility throughout the day as markets reacted to developments in the Middle East.

Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei said in his first official statement that Iran would “continue to use the leverage of blocking the Strait of Hormuz as a tool to pressure enemies,” a remark that led markets to begin pricing in the possibility of disruptions to global oil shipments.

Supply concerns intensified further after United States Energy Secretary Chris Wright said it was not currently possible to guarantee protection for maritime oil transport nor provide United States military escorts for tankers.

“It’ll happen relatively soon but it can’t happen now,” Wright said during an interview with CNBC on Thursday. “We’re simply not ready.”

At one point during the session, West Texas Intermediate crude briefly rose above $97 per barrel.

U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright attends the 2026 Infrastructure Summit of government officials, corporate executives and labor leaders in Washington on March 11. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

The roller coaster pattern has continued throughout the week.

Brent crude — the global benchmark — surged to nearly $120 per barrel during intraday trading on Monday, plunged below $90 the following day and then rebounded above $100 again.

Markets have reacted sharply to geopolitical developments — with oil prices jumping when concerns about military escalation and supply disruptions rise, and falling when expectations emerge that tensions could ease.

Although the United States government and international organizations have introduced measures to stabilize oil prices, the efforts have so far failed to calm markets.

The Office of Foreign Assets Control at the United States Treasury issued a license allowing purchases of Russian crude oil and petroleum products, which had previously been subject to sanctions, for 30 days in an effort to stabilize global oil prices.

The measure could release about 120 million barrels of Russian oil that had been stranded at sea.

A screen displays the the company logo for Goldman Sachs on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York City on May 7, 2025. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

The United States also announced it would release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve over about 120 days to supply the market.

Earlier, the International Energy Agency said 32 member countries had agreed to release a record 400 million barrels from emergency oil reserves.

Despite these measures, oil prices remain under upward pressure because the structural risk of a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz has not been resolved.

Investment banks are also revising oil price forecasts upward.

Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for Brent crude in the fourth quarter of 2026 from $66 per barrel to $71 and lifted its forecast for West Texas Intermediate crude from $62 to $67.

Under a scenario where supply disruptions intensify, Goldman Sachs said average prices in March and April could climb to about $110 per barrel.

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom. BY KIM DA-YOUNG [lim.jeongwon@joongang.co.kr]