South Korea's top envoy in Washington warns of serious provocations by North ahead of U.S. election

South Korea's top envoy to Washington on Tuesday warned that North Korea has historically committed serious provocations during U.S. government transitions.

Korean Ambassador to the United States Cho Hyun-dong speaks during a meeting with reporters in Washington on Tuesday. [YONHAP]

[NEWS ANALYSIS]

During a meeting with reporters in Washington, Korean Ambassador to the United States Cho Hyun-dong reassured that Seoul and Washington maintain a 24-hour readiness posture through continuous information sharing and close collaboration to respond to potential threats.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un delivers a speech in Pyongyang on Sept. 9 on the 76th anniversary of North Korea's founding, in this photo provided by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. [YONHAP]

This alert follows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's remarks on Sept. 9, the regime’s founding anniversary, where he threatened an "exponential increase" of his nuclear arsenal. Shortly after, North Korea revealed its uranium enrichment facility and test-launched a super-large tactical ballistic missile and an upgraded cruise missile. These moves have prompted speculation among analysts that Pyongyang could be preparing for a seventh nuclear test or the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

While both South Korean and U.S. officials consider such provocations unsurprising, given Pyongyang's past behavior, sources close to the matter indicated that the allies are prepared to respond promptly according to pre-established protocols.

With just over a month until the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5, Cho noted that the Korean embassy has been in contact with key U.S. policy experts and opinion leaders, discussing ways to strengthen the South Korea-U.S. alliance further. Cho added that the embassy will engage with the incoming U.S. administration to ensure a smooth continuation of bilateral relations, particularly concerning North Korea policy.

North Korea has stepped up its criticism of U.S. military and diplomatic activities.

Pyongyang issued its second consecutive statement condemning recent U.S. actions on Wednesday, with analysts suggesting this is part of North Korea's strategy to increase its leverage as the U.S. election draws closer.

Kim Yo-jong, the influential sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, on Tuesday condemned the arrival of the 7,800-ton USS Vermont, which had docked at a naval base in Busan the previous day for resupply and crew rest. In a statement released through the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), she vowed to "continuously and limitlessly" enhance North Korea's nuclear war deterrent in response to what she described as ongoing U.S. threats.

The nuclear-powered USS Vermont, a Virginia-class attack submarine of the U.S. Navy, arrives at a naval base in Busan on Monday to replenish supplies. [YONHAP]

“The DPRK's nuclear war deterrent to cope with and contain various threats from outside is bound to be bolstered up both in quality and quantity continuously and limitlessly as the security of the state is constantly exposed to the U.S. nuclear threat and blackmail,” Kim said in the KCNA's English-language report.

She also issued a direct threat, warning that “all ports and military bases of the ROK are not safe places.”

Kim claimed that North Korea’s Aerospace Reconnaissance Agency detected the submarine’s arrival at "10:03:10" and reported it to leadership. This agency, first mentioned by North Korean media, is believed to handle reconnaissance data from North Korea’s first spy satellite, Malligyong-1, launched last year.

South Korean military officials dismissed North Korea’s claims of detecting the submarine as "bluffing," noting that the KCNA did not carry photos supporting the surveillance report.

Choi Il, head of the Submarine Research Institute, also criticized North Korea's disproportionate response, arguing that visits by U.S. nuclear-powered general-purpose attack submarines (SSNs) to South Korea are not uncommon. Choi emphasized that the North was deliberately conflating an SSN with a ballistic missile submarine (SSBN).

"North Korea is trying to justify its nuclear development by equating SSNs with strategic nuclear submarines like SSBNs," Choi said. "This is likely part of its effort to escalate tensions and lay the groundwork for future provocations."

Along with Kim's statement, North Korea also issued Wednesday a strong rebuke to the recent Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) summit's joint statement, which raised concerns about North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs, labeling it a "grave political provocation." The Quad is a consultative body composed of the United States, Japan, Australia and India.

"Recently, the U.S. slandered the DPRK's exercise of its righteous and legitimate sovereign rights with the Quad summit meeting as an occasion and perpetrated a grave political provocation of inciting the atmosphere of collective pressure on the DPRK," said North Korea’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson in a statement.

The ministry criticized the joint statement from the Quad leaders, asserting that it served U.S. geopolitical interests and calling the group "a political and diplomatic tool for U.S. unipolar domination." Pyongyang expressed "serious concern" over what it described as "brazen hostility" from the U.S. and strongly rejected the summit’s findings.

On Saturday, the Quad leaders adopted the Wilmington Declaration, which urged North Korea to "abide by all its obligations under UN Security Council resolutions, refrain from further provocations, and engage in substantive dialogue."

Experts suggest that North Korea’s recent surge in anti-U.S. rhetoric may presage aggressive action against the United States around the time of the U.S. presidential election.

"North Korea’s statements are intended to build a pretext for high-intensity provocations against the U.S.," said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies.

"North Korea is likely to stage significant provocations … such as a seventh nuclear test or an ICBM launch … to assert its presence and secure a stronger negotiating position with the incoming U.S. administration," Yang said.

BY SEO JI-EUN [seo.jieun1@joongang.co.kr]