North claims analysis of drone proves departure from South's Baengnyeong Island

North Korea has doubled down on its claims that South Korea conducted a drone incursion, alleging that an analysis of the recovered vehicle tracked a flight path originating on Baengnyeong Island.

A drone that North Korea claims was sent by the South Korean military is seen crashed in a tree in this photo carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Oct. 19. The drone is being described by Pyongyang as the same type that was publicly displayed on Armed Forces Day in Seoul earlier this month. [NEWS1]

North Korea on Monday intensified its accusations that South Korea is behind a drone infiltration to drop anti-regime propaganda leaflets on Pyongyang, with "the final results of investigation" claiming that a South Korean drone took off from Baengnyeong Island earlier this month and flew toward the capital.

Experts quickly raised questions about Pyongyang's findings, noting that this alleged flight history does not align with previously disclosed data and may be misleading.

North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported that its Ministry of National Defense had completed an investigation, saying a joint team — comprising North Korea’s Ministry of National Defense, Ministry of State Security and other specialized agencies — examined the flight control module of a drone recovered from a crash site, following up on Pyongyang's claim on Oct. 19 that it had discovered the remains of a South Korean military drone.

The team reportedly analyzed 238 flight logs dating from June 5, 2023, through Oct. 8 — of which the Oct. 8 flight allegedly encroached on North Korean airspace, while the remaining flights occurred within South Korean territory, suggesting, according to Pyongyang, that the drone was operated by South Korea since mid-2023.

North Korea said on Oct. 19 that debris of the crashed drone model matched the “light one for long-range reconnaissance” used by South Korea’s Drone Operation Command, showcased during an Armed Forces Day event in Seoul earlier this month.

Yet analysts pointed out that this command was only established in September of last year, casting doubt on North Korea’s claims of records dating back to June 2023.

Further inconsistencies arose regarding the timeline of alleged drone activity. North Korea initially mentioned drone infiltrations on "Oct. 3, 9 and 10," but this time stated that flights prior to Oct. 8 were restricted to South Korean territory.

Flight path of alleged South Korean drone infiltration into North Korea [NAM JUNG-HYUN]

The North’s report detailed the Oct. 8 flight path, alleging that the drone took off from Baengnyeong Island at 11:25 p.m., flew over Jangyon County in South Hwanghae, passed waters near Chodo and flew near the waters of Namjoapdo, and then entered Pyongyang’s airspace. North Korean media also published a map and a chart showing the alleged 430-kilometer (2,670-mile) round-trip route, but the actual flight record depicted in another North Korean graphic appeared to end in Pyongyang, suggesting the drone may have been unable to complete its planned return.

Analysts questioned the plausibility of this route, noting that the alleged “light for long-range reconnaissance” drone's maximum speed of 140 kilometers per hour and four-hour flight time limit are insufficient for such a round-trip, especially with a payload like propaganda leaflets.

"The drone is capable only of carrying a small camera on one round-trip to Pyongyang. The payload is less than 600 grams [21 ounces]," said South Korean Rep. Yoo Yong-won of the People Power Party, who is a member of the National Defense Committee of the National Assembly, in a radio interview Monday.

"North Korea might be attempting to divert attention from its own recent controversies, such as reports of North Korean military deployment to Ukraine," Rep. Yoo suggested.

A propaganda leaflet believed to be from North Korea is seen on the ground prior to a welcoming ceremony for Poland's President Andrzej Duda at the presidential office in Yongsan District, central Seoul, on Thursday. [YONHAP]

North Korea further alleged that the drone had released propaganda leaflets over key areas in Pyongyang, including near the Foreign Ministry building and the National Defense Ministry. These buildings lie within one kilometer of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s office, indicating, if true, a potential security breach. In apparent retaliation, North Korea recently scattered leaflets around Seoul’s Yongsan District, where South Korea’s presidential office is located, containing criticisms of President Yoon Suk Yeol and first lady Kim Keon Hee.

"In the case that infringement upon the sovereignty of the DPRK reoccurs, … the source of all misfortune and provocations will disappear forever by the merciless offensive of the DPRK," the North’s Ministry of National Defense threatened, hinting at targeting the source of provocations while referring to the country's official name.

South Korean military officials dismissed North Korea’s accusations as “one-sided claims,” asserting that they were "not worth verifying or addressing."

In response, Kim Yo-jong, sister of the North Korean leader, issued a statement Monday through the KCNA, positing a hypothetical scenario in which a drone scattered leaflets over Seoul and echoed the South’s response, saying, “We cannot confirm it and it is worthless to give answer to it.”

"Kim Yo-jong's statement is a mockery of our response to the alleged drone infiltration case to Pyongyang," Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul. "It could be an indication of North Korea’s intent to launch its own drone operations distributing propaganda leaflets or trash near the presidential office or the Joint Chiefs of Staff sites."

BY SEO JI-EUN [seo.jieun1@joongang.co.kr]