Don't overinterpret North's actions, experts warn after underwhelming response to South's loudspeaker withdrawal

The Lee Jae Myung administration claimed that the North Korean military was also taking down its loudspeakers targeting the South. In reality, however, Pyongyang appears to have removed just one.

The photo shows a North Korean guard post and loudspeaker facing the South along the Imjin River in Paju, Gyeonggi, near the inter-Korean border on Aug. 10. [YONHAP]

After South Korea dismantled all its propaganda loudspeakers along the front lines earlier this month as a conciliatory gesture toward North Korea, the Lee Jae Myung administration claimed that the North Korean military was also taking down its loudspeakers targeting the South. In reality, however, Pyongyang appears to have removed just one.

President Lee himself described the North’s move in a Cabinet meeting as a “reciprocal measure,” but it was effectively a one-sided withdrawal by the South. Analysts say Pyongyang has often used such selective responses to South Korean overtures as a tactic to extract further concessions.

According to multiple military sources on Wednesday, North Korea dismantled two loudspeakers facing the South on Aug. 9 but reinstalled one shortly afterward. As of Wednesday morning, no further removals have been detected.

Given that the restored loudspeaker was reinstalled so quickly, the North may not have entirely removed the other one either, instead taking it down for maintenance or due to a technical problem. The South Korean military estimates the North has about 40 loudspeakers targeting the South.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) dismantled all 24 fixed loudspeakers along the South’s front lines between Aug. 4 and 5, calling it “a practical measure to help ease tensions between the two Koreas without affecting the military’s readiness posture.”

The military announced Saturday that it had detected the North removing some loudspeakers in certain front-line areas that morning. The unusually quick announcement — just hours after the development — suggested that Seoul viewed the move as an immediate response to the South’s goodwill gesture.

The photo shows a North Korean guard post and loudspeaker facing the South along the Imjin River in Paju, Gyeonggi, near the inter-Korean border on Aug. 10. [YONHAP]

President Lee also mentioned the move in Tuesday’s Cabinet meeting, saying, “We recently removed our loudspeakers toward the North, and while I don’t know if it’s all of them, the North has reportedly dismantled some of theirs as well. I hope these reciprocal measures will gradually open the door to dialogue and communication between the two Koreas.” His remarks were widely read as a positive assessment of the North’s limited response.

However, with the North dismantling only two out of about 40 loudspeakers — and promptly restoring one — some critics say the government’s assessment and public announcement were premature. Others warn that by overinterpreting the North’s actions in the name of easing tensions, the government risks sending the wrong message.

Experts note the importance of comprehensive evaluation and careful analysis of Pyongyang’s intentions before making official statements.

“It is difficult for the North to fully reciprocate the South’s moves proportionally while maintaining its policy of severing ties, as reaffirmed by Kim Yo-jong, deputy director of the Workers’ Party,” said Hong Min, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification.

The photo shows a loudspeaker installed at a Korean guard post in the border area of Paju, Gyeonggi, on June 12. [NEWS1]

The military says it has not ruled out the possibility of the North dismantling more loudspeakers later. “We confirmed that the North removed some loudspeakers in certain front-line areas on Aug. 9, and we are continuing to monitor their activities,” a military official said Wednesday.

With the ongoing Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States, Pyongyang may choose to wait before making further conciliatory gestures.

North Korean Defense Minister No Kwang-chol issued a statement on Sunday condemning the UFS as a direct military provocation against the state. The North conducted artillery drills on Monday aimed at "perfecting the capability to fight a war and the battle readiness of the entire army."

Analysts say that given such efforts to reinforce anti-South sentiment internally, Pyongyang has little incentive to respond favorably to Seoul’s overtures at this time.

“Propaganda loudspeakers are one of the South’s most prominent asymmetrical tools, and North Korea is sensitive to them,” said Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University. “Even if not immediately, Pyongyang may dismantle its loudspeakers later to send the message that they should not be brought back.”

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom staff. BY LEE YU-JUNG [kim.minyoung5@joongang.co.kr]