Prepare for the arrival of ‘black swan’

If we can’t expel the anxiety about a time of geopolitical turmoil, let’s take advantage of it for the better.

Sohn In-jooThe author is a professor at the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Seoul National University. The “black swan” will come if there’s no winner or loser right after the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5. I hope the concern proves to be wrong. But what will happen if neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris is the winner? You will be certainly confused about the unexpected development. You should be wary of wishful thinking and prepare for all possible scenarios. The transition of power in Washington demands wise crisis management from all stakeholders.

Recently, unexpected events have occurred one after another in U.S. politics. Just think of the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump and the unforeseen decision by current President Joe Biden to not run for president. Even Netflix drama writers can hardly imagine the shocking political drama unfolding in the United States. All the developments just feel like a “surreal drama,” not a “reality show.”

In the 2016 presidential race, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton led Trump by 2.1 percentage points in the popular vote, but Trump was elected president by winning the swing states. At that time, Clinton could concede as she suffered a clear defeat in the swing states in the popular vote. But if the results of those states in this election are very close, Trump or Harris would not concede easily. The Democratic Party is different from 8 years ago. Anti-Trump sentiment within the party has deepened so much that a number of Democrats would consider Trump’s re-election as the end of democracy.

What if the election results of a swing state like Pennsylvania lead to a lawsuit in the Supreme Court? You can’t expect the gentlemanly concession that Vice President Al Gore made to his Republican rival George W. Bush after the Florida recount in the 2000 election. The path to compromise and tolerance is extremely narrow this time in Washington, the hotbed of the most ferocious political confrontation and sharpest internal division since the Civil War. Moreover, there are still many loopholes in the U.S. election system, including its deficient voter identification procedures. If either side demands a full recount of the votes, it will put the U.S. democracy to the test.

That’s not all. Cyberspace has reportedly turned into the playground of external forces called the “axis of upheaval.” Security experts worry that Russia and North Korea, which favor Trump, and China and Iran, which favor Harris, may have been spreading fake news and conspiracy theories. This could give the losing side another excuse to not accept the election result. This election isn’t just for Americans; it’s an election that can spread chaos to the rest of the world. If neither side concedes defeat in a neck-and-neck race, international politics, economy, security and democracy could face an unprecedented crisis. If there is a vacuum in U.S. leadership, it will critically affect the Korean Peninsula and the Indo-Pacific region, too.

Even if the next U.S. president is elected peacefully, the reality of a divided America won’t change immediately. The country is entangled in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the Middle East conflict. With two wars underway, the United States has less room to brace for a possible contingency in East Asia. A new U.S. administration must focus on solving urgent social and economic problems at home. That will make it difficult for Uncle Sam to maintain the Indo-Pacific regional order on his own. If a power vacuum shakes up the existing order, the security burdens of U.S. allies, including South Korea, will increase to maintain the regional order.

During a period of upheaval, we must prepare for the possibility of North Korea, China and Russia bolstering their covert cooperation between their military-industrial complexes and strengthening their defense industry supply chains. In particular, we must pay heed to the North’s possible provocations under the pretext of pre-emptive self-defense — and the possibility of Russia and China getting involved in the provocations. Russia will likely intervene in an emergency on the Korean Peninsula by applying its recently upgraded treaty with the North to exert its influence on the geopolitics of East Asia. At a critical juncture in the Ukrainian war, Russia could seek to expand its stake and leverage in the peninsula to boost its negotiating power for a ceasefire in the protracted war or postwar period.

Stephen Kotkin, a historian at Stanford University, identified the fundamental vulnerability of dictatorships. He argues that the existence of liberal democracies itself — not their “policies” — poses an existential threat to authoritarian regimes. Due to the lack of legitimacy of authoritarian regimes, dictators worry that their citizens may prefer Western universal values and superior institutions. Liberal democracies also have problems, but leaders of authoritarian regimes ultimately fear the charm — and power — of liberal systems. That’s why most autocrats obsessed with the fundamental issue want to weaken Western alliances to maintain their regimes and, in the longer run, neutralize the U.S.-led liberal world order.

We must prepare for the worst-case scenario. First, we must strengthen multi-layered cooperation with the United States to prepare for its domestic political instability and isolationist path. Korea must maintain close communication channels with America in various regions and sectors, including not only the federal government in Washington, but also Congress, state and local governments, businesses and various interest groups.

Cementing strategic cooperation with East Asian countries who share a sense of crisis, including Japan, is no longer a choice, but a must. South Korea and Japan — champions of liberal democracy which respects freedom, the rule of law and democratic values — are exposed to common risks such as North Korea’s nuclear threat, an armed conflict on the peninsula, close ties between Russia and the North and the possibility of China invading Taiwan. To respond more effectively to these risks, the U.S. forces in South Korea and Japan should be able to conduct integrated operations. In this regard, the security of the two countries is closely linked. Reinforcing security cooperation between Seoul and Tokyo to prepare for the decline of U.S. leadership and the resulting geopolitical risks is also essential to bolster East Asia’s independent defense capabilities.

Political polarization is so serious in South Korea that bipartisan cooperation on diplomacy and security is not easy. But the government must build consensus on the basic direction of foreign policy through its briefings to the National Assembly. To carry out foreign and security policies in tune with public sentiment, the government must inform the people of its policy. It can set up a prestigious committee of renowned scholars to listen to their policy proposals.

Each citizen must share responsibility during tough times. Our history is full of examples of successfully overcoming internal and external challenges through unity. The time has come to break away from complacency and confront the crisis. In 1940, Walter Lippmann, a prominent American journalist, delivered a famous speech at Harvard University about the situation of the world and the crisis of democracy at the time. He underscored the importance of resolute determination for democracies to protect their freedom and justice. “For every right that you cherish, you have a duty which you must fulfill. For every hope that you entertain, you have a task that you must perform. For every good that you wish to preserve, you will have to sacrifice your comfort and your ease,” he said in his speech to the Harvard Class of 1910 at their thirtieth reunion in 1940.

If we can’t expel the anxiety about a time of geopolitical turmoil, let’s take dvantage of it for the better. Let’s imagine the worst case scenario and lower our expectations. We can proactively prepare ourselves to prevent the worst outcome. To navigate the uncertain and chaotic times of the U.S. presidential election, let’s fasten our seat belts. Above all, let’s become “wise pessimists” who prepare themselves for the arrival of the black swan. Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.