Elon Musk paints bleak population picture for Korea, but reality may be worse

Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk predicted that Korea's population my drop by a third in a recent talk, but Statistics Korea has produced even bleaker projections.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk appears on a screen during the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Tuesday. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk recurrently flagged an “existential” risk posed by a global population crisis, singling out Korea once again as the country has struggled with one of the world’s lowest fertility rates.

The grim picture Musk painted for the country — a population shrinking to a third of its current size — may sound too bleak to be true. The projection, however, is not even a worst-case scenario, according to a national statistics agency’s data.

“Based on the current birthrates, South Korea would have about a third of its current population, perhaps much less," said Musk in a virtual conversation during the Future Investment Initiative, which took place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Tuesday.

While Musk did not provide a specific time frame for his projection for Korea, the scenario is largely in line with what data suggests.

In June, Statistics Korea predicted the country’s population to fall 30 percent from 2022 to 36.22 million by 2072, and by 63 percent to 19.35 million by 2122, in a medium estimate with a fertility rate of 1.08 children per woman.

In a low estimate with a fertility rate of 0.82, the population is forecast to drop 42 percent in the next 50 years and 79 percent in 100 years, meaning that the population may shrink to a fifth of the current size by 2122. A high estimate predicts a 41 percent decline by 2122 at a fertility rate of 1.34.

Statistics Korea previously projected this year's fertility rate to be a record low of 0.68, even lower than last year’s 0.72.

Musk warned of a "global population collapse" as "a significant existential threat" during his latest conversation.

“Birthrates have been collapsing pretty much worldwide,” the CEO said. “If the current compounding effect continues, you would see many countries become five percent of their current size or less within three generations.”

This is not the first time that Musk warned of a population crisis citing Korea's plunging birthrates, as he wrote in a social media post in 2022, “South Korea and Hong Kong are experiencing the fastest population collapse. Note, 2.1 kids per woman is replacement rate.”

BY SHIN HA-NEE [shin.hanee@joongang.co.kr]