North Korea's military personnel in Russia expected to hit 5,000

A report by the New York Times cited Ukrainian and U.S. officials as expressing expectations that North Korea's deployment in Kursk will reach 5,000 soldiers by Monday.

Soldiers believed to be from North Korea are standing in line to receive supplies from Russia on Oct. 19 in a screen capture of video footage released by the Ukrainian Center for Strategic Communication and Information Security, or Spravdi. [SCREEN CAPTURE]

North Korean military personnel have been gathering in Russia’s Kursk region, a contested area that borders Ukraine, with up to 5,000 troops expected to assemble by Monday, according to a news report.

The initial group of North Korean troops reportedly reached Kursk last Wednesday, with “thousands more arriving each day,” The New York Times reported on Friday, citing one Ukrainian and two U.S. officials.

By Monday, the total number of North Korean troops in the area is projected to reach 5,000, the report added. According to the officials, the military personnel are part of an elite unit of the North Korean People's Army.

The troops are under the command of Kim Yong-bok, the deputy chief of the General Staff of the Korean People’s Army, Japan’s Kyodo News reported, citing a Ukrainian military source. Kim, who reportedly was found to be staying in Russia last Thursday, is known as a close confidant of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, having accompanied him to a military training base earlier this year.

Ukrainian forces have advanced into parts of Kursk, located in western Russia along its border with Ukraine, since August as part of their counteroffensive operations, once occupying up to 1,250 square kilometers (482 square miles). However, Western intelligence reports indicate that significant portions of the area were retaken by Russian forces last month.

While the North Korean troops are anticipated to assist Russian forces in repelling Ukrainian advances, they have not yet entered the fight, and their specific role remains uncertain, according to The Times. A senior Ukrainian official was quoted saying that it is unclear whether additional North Korean reinforcements will be deployed beyond Kursk.

South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) estimated that North Korea’s troop deployment in Russia could increase to 10,000 by December in a recent briefing to the National Assembly.

For now, U.S. officials say they have seen "no evidence of a quid pro quo" with North Korea's dispatch of troops to Russia, The Times said. It added that the North Korean leader may be using the deployment to "improve the range of his intercontinental ballistic missiles and demonstrate that they are capable of hitting American cities."

Darcie Draudt-Véjares, a North Korea expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, cautioned, “This development could fundamentally alter the security balance on the Korean Peninsula, especially if North Korea gains combat experience while testing its advanced weapons systems.”

Astra, an outlet claiming to be independent Russian media, posted footage on its Telegram channel on Tuesday showing what appear to be North Korean soldiers standing outside a building. Astra claimed the video captures the arrival of North Korean soldiers at a military base, believed to be Unit 44980 of the 127th Motor Rifle Division in Sergievsky in Russia's Far Eastern city of Vladivostok. [SCREEN CAPTURE]

A South Korean government delegation will visit NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Monday to share information about North Korea's troop deployment to Russia. The delegation, led by first deputy director of the NIS Hong Jang-won, comprises senior officials from Seoul's intelligence, military and diplomatic agencies.

However, South Korean military officials believe the North Korean forces may be largely inexperienced and untrained.

"Calling this a deployment is generous — it would be more accurate to describe them as cannon fodder mercenaries," South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun stated during a National Assembly session on Thursday.

“Typically, deployed forces retain their own uniforms, insignia and command structures, but North Korean troops are wearing Russian uniforms and operating under Russian control, without any command authority,” he added.

Multiple sources reported that South Korea’s Defense Intelligence Agency has compiled an interim report indicating that most of the North Korean soldiers deployed in Russia are young conscripts in their teens and early twenties, based on intelligence and video analyses.

Intercepts obtained by Ukrainian Defense Intelligence, released on Friday, also support this view.

According to CNN, the intercepts revealed plans to place one interpreter and three senior officers for every 30 North Korean soldiers, a structure that Russian soldiers were overheard criticizing as inefficient.

Both Pyongyang and Moscow have indirectly confirmed the deployment.

Russian President Vladimir Putin gives a press conference on the sidelines of the 2024 Brics Summit in Kazan, western Russia, on Thursday. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin referenced Article 4 of a “comprehensive strategic partnership” treaty with North Korea, which promises mutual defense if one side is attacked, in a remark that effectively confirmed the North Korean presence.

In response to a question about the troop dispatch at a multilateral summit in Kazan, Russia, Putin argued that what Pyongyang and Moscow “do within the framework” of the treaty is “our business.”

A day later, Kim Jong-gyu, the North's vice foreign minister responsible for Russian affairs, said, “If there is such a thing as the world media is talking about, I think it will be an act conforming with the regulations of international law,” indirectly acknowledging the troop deployment.

However, Pyongyang has not disclosed the news domestically, likely to avoid public unrest over its first deployment to a European conflict, especially given that many of the troops are young soldiers.

In a trilateral meeting in Washington on Friday, the national security advisers of South Korea, the United States and Japan expressed “grave concern” over the troop dispatch. South Korean National Security Advisor Shin Won-sik and his U.S. and Japanese counterparts, Jake Sullivan and Takeo Akiba, called for both North Korea and Russia to cease their military cooperation, while also discussing other pressing security concerns.

BY SEO JI-EUN [seo.jieun1@joongang.co.kr]