A lethal mix of Putin’s despair and Kim’s anxiety

The dispatch of the troops elevates the chances of the Korean Peninsula falling into turmoil.

Doo Jin-hoThe author is head of the global strategy division at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s troops have crossed the line. A total of 1,500 members of the North Korean special operations forces have reportedly been deployed to the Russian Far East using landing ships and frigates of Russia’s Pacific Fleet. Moreover, 10,000 troops from the North Korean Army are expected to be deployed in Russia’s special military operation next month.

The National Intelligence Service (NIS) said it detected North Korea transporting special forces to the Far East using Russia’s Pacific Fleet while closely monitoring the movements of the North Korean military. It is the first time that a Russian naval vessel entered North Korean territorial waters since 1990, just before the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

Presiding over a National Security Council meeting last week, President Yoon Suk Yeol defined that “the current situation in which a Russia-North Korea military collusion has led to the actual dispatch beyond the movement of military supplies is a serious security threat.” In a phone conversation with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Monday, President Yoon reaffirmed the principle of a joint response to the illegal cooperation between North Korea and Russia. South Korea has agreed to join NATO’s Battlefield Information Collection and Exploitation System (BICES) as soon as possible. The president said Korea will actively take step-by-step measures according to the progress of the military cooperation between Russia and North Korea, hinting at the possibility of providing weapons to Ukraine.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin remained prudent and didn’t confirm the North’s dispatch of troops at first. Austin visited Kiev, Ukraine, on Oct. 21 and reaffirmed the promise to provide the security resources needed to defend against Russian aggression. The moment the United States acknowledges the North’s sending of troops to Russia, it has to take corresponding measures. One of the actions the West can take is to approve Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons targeting mainland Russia.

Ukrainian politicians, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, possibly used strong expressions — such as a “first step toward another world war” and “the North Korean invasion of Europe” — to demand the West to remove the restriction on long-range missiles against Russia.

However, countermeasures by the West could expand the war in Ukraine or escalate it into a nuclear war in the worst case scenario. With only 11 days left until the U.S. presidential election, the Democratic government of the United States is barely handling “two wars” and doesn’t want to admit the unexpected situation of North Korean military participation. Until the election, the priority is to keep the situation stable through “strategic patience” as much as possible. After Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Pyongyang in June for the first time in 24 years and signed the “comprehensive strategic partnership” with Kim Jong-un — which includes automatic intervention in case of emergency — the acceleration of military cooperation such as a troop dispatch was expected. But the level and size of the combat troops and war supplies identified by the NIS exceeded expectations.

When the uncertainty in global leadership is resolved after the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, the international community can speed up the discussion to end the Ukraine war. Putin knows that the North-Russia military cooperation is a “deal with the devil” but pursued it because he can’t ignore the limits of a wartime economy or the Russian public opinion preferring a peace negotiation.

The combination of Putin’s desperation for the upper hand in the war and Kim’s anxiety about the absence of an exit strategy from isolation draws a long shadow of the new Cold War over the Korean Peninsula. The North’s participation in the war is a serious provocation threatening world peace.

The dispatch of North Korean troops also means Russia’s military intervention in the event of an emergency on the peninsula. Furthermore, Kim’s “bucket list” could be realized, including the advancement of military reconnaissance satellites and securing technology for North Korean ICBMs’ atmospheric reentry. With nothing to lose and nowhere to go, Kim is aiming for an exit strategy by scapegoating young North Korean soldiers to find answers for his homeland’s future from Russia.

The dispatch of the troops elevates the chances of the Korean Peninsula falling into turmoil. The Yoon administration must consider all possibilities, work with the international community in all directions and use every possible means to stably manage the peninsula situation. The National Assembly must pass a resolution urging the North to stop the dispatch. Bipartisan cooperation is necessary to protect the vital interests of South Korea.

Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.