What the North gains by going to war in Ukraine

North Korea’s national goals have not changed since 1950, when it crossed the 38th parallel with Sovietmade T-34 tanks, or now, when it loaded troops onto Russian naval landing ships, although its methods have changed.

Chae Byung-gunThe author is the chief editor of contents production at the JoongAng Ilbo.

Military gains are not the only thing that North Korea will get in return for dispatching troops in Russia for the war in Ukraine. Its troops will be armed with Russian-made firearms and equipment in Europe, where they will gain hands-on experience fighting Ukrainian ground forces, reinforcing the North’s military capabilities against the South. But what is also worth noting is how the North’s military participation will impact denuclearization of the regime.

Until now, the international community, through the United Nations Security Council, has made clear that the North’s nuclear weapons are unacceptable and imposed sanctions on it. However, Russia, a permanent member on the security council, has completely abandoned these sanctions by accepting North Korean troops.

This year, the North and Russia formed a military alliance under the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty. It states that should either nation be “put in a state of war by an armed invasion,” the other will “provide military and other assistance with all means in its possession without delay.” In retrospect, the treaty was a prelude to North Korean military involvement in the war in Ukraine. It is unlikely that Russia will return to the efforts to denuclearize the North.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un hold two copies of the new treaty between the two countries after signing them in Pyongyang, June 19. [TASS/YONHAP]

Cutting off North Korea’s funding sources will also be complicated. The UN Security Council’s sanctions against the North were intended to meticulously block the flow of money into Pyongyang. However, Russia, which used mercenaries in the Ukraine war, will pay the North for dispatching troops, which is consistent with Pyongyang’s goal of neutralizing the sanctions.

Deterrence against the North’s nuclear power has been maintained by warning that the moment the country uses its weapons, it will be wiped off the map. For this idea to work, it needs to be backed up by actual capabilities to strike the North.

Nuclear weapons are the only power to counter nuclear weapons. Nuclear deterrence has been maintained through a balance of nuclear fear. The “nuclear umbrella” is a dry example of this, in which any North Korean nuclear attack would be retaliated by the three major nuclear forces of the United States — nuclear bombers, submarines and missiles — and the South’s special forces to take out the North’s leadership. The South and the United States have even warned of a preemptive strike strategy to neutralize the North using the “Left of Launch,” a strategy that will detect signs of a nuclear missile launch in advance and neutralize it just before launch.

However, if Russia attempts to intervene in the Korean Peninsula’s affairs even after the end of the Ukraine war, nuclear deterrence will have a new variable. So far, the nuclear deterrent on the peninsula has only dealt with North Korean nuclear arms, but in a worst-case scenario, Russia could intervene and the U.S. nuclear umbrella on the South could be called into question.

North Korea may threaten with provocations, and Russia could join in, threatening the international community by saying, “We will support the North with all the means at our disposal in the event of a serious incident that threatens our ally.” Russia has demonstrated what “all means” are during the Ukraine war by repeatedly threatening to use nuclear weapons to deter Western military intervention in Ukraine.

Once the war is over, it remains to be seen whether a fatigued Russia will be willing to spend its energy on opening a confrontational front in Northeast Asia. But whatever Russia’s intentions, there is little doubt that the North will seek to draw Russia into the region in any way that will help it retain and expand its nuclear arms.

The North may stage conventional provocations to draw Russia into the peninsula. In the past, inter-Korean armed conflicts such as the two naval skirmishes in the Yellow Sea and the North’s shelling of the South’s Yeonpyeong Island have followed the sequence of the North’s provocation being countered by the South’s proportional response. However, an escalation scenario of the North’s provocation, the South’s response, Russian intervention and U.S. intervention is also possible in the future, such as Russian strategic bombers flying over the East Sea immediately after a local provocation by the North.

Russia once violated the South Korean airspace over Dokdo Islet with an early warning aircraft five years ago. It was the first time South Korean airspace was violated since the 1953 Korean War armistice. At the time, South Korean fighter jets scrambled and fired flares and machine gun warning shots to end the intrusion.

The North invited the Soviet Union to invade the South 74 years ago. This time, it joined the Russian invasion of Ukraine and officially labeled the South as its “eternal enemy and hostile state.” This was a declaration of its rejection of a peaceful coexistence with the South. North Korea’s national goals have not changed since 1950, when it crossed the 38th parallel with Sovietmade T-34 tanks, or now, when it loaded troops onto Russian naval landing ships, although its methods have changed.