Don’t forget the ‘nuclear paradox’

The most realistic solution to respond to the North’s nuclear threat is to strengthen the South-U.S. extended deterrence.

Chang Se-jeongThe author is an editorial writer of the JoongAng Ilbo. South Korea faces grimmer security challenges than ever before. After North Korean leader Kim Jong-un abruptly disclosed a secluded facility to produce highly enriched uranium for nuclear weapons, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency prompted controversy with an intriguing remark bordering on condoning the North’s possession of nuclear arms. But clearly, rock-solid security is a prerequisite for the country’s survival and prosperity. It starts with demoralizing the North before it takes advantage of the South’s security challenges.

On the occasion of the 76th Armed Forces Day last week amid deepening security concerns at home and abroad, the JoongAng Ilbo met with the new National Security Office Director Shin Won-sik, who took office in August, to listen to his views on the urgent diplomatic and security challenges the country faces. Shin, 66, was born in Tongyeong, South Gyeongsang, graduated from Dongseong High School in 1977 and graduated from the Korea Military Academy in 1981. He served as the commander of the 3rd Infantry Division; the director of policy planning at the Ministry of National Defense; the commander of the Capital Defense Command; the director of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) Operations Headquarters; the vice chairman of the JCS (lieutenant general); a People Power Party lawmaker; and the minister of National Defense. The following are excerpts from the interview.

National Security Office Director Shin Won-shik, former defense minister, explains our government’s policy to deal with various types of military threats from North Korea, including nuclear weapons and missiles, and its persistent dispatch of dirty balloons to South Korea, in an interview with the JoongAng Ilbo in the presidential compound in Yongsan District shortly before the Oct.1 Armed Forces Day. [KIM HYUN-DONG]

Q. First, what would you like to say to our military? A. I thank all our servicemen for faithfully performing their duties on the land, sea and sky of this country and overseas. Our security posture is solid thanks to our military personnel and their families who have quietly supported them. To protect our people from existential security threats from North Korean nuclear weapons and missiles, a strong national defense force and an ironclad readiness posture are essential.

The shortage of military manpower due to the low birthrate, the rapid decline in the application rate for junior officers and the increase in their turnover have reached serious levels. What do you think about alternatives such as the introduction of a volunteer system, including women, which is being discussed? Since maintaining a stable regular force could be limited by the volunteer system, we still need our conscription system. In the case of the female volunteer system, the effect of recruiting troops through the system is not clear — and it can cause unnecessary gender conflict as it is perceived as a preliminary step toward a female conscription system. Realistic alternatives to the shortage of military resources include converting the current short-term service by many to a long-term service by a small number of troops, building a strong combat capability with a small number of soldiers, constructing a combined manned- and unmanned-combat system centered on artificial intelligence (AI) and expanding civilian outsourcing of non-combat missions. We plan to lift the ratio of women in the military — currently at 8 percent — to the level of advanced countries at 15 percent.

What’s your response to the North’s persistent dispatch of dirty balloons since May? We are thoroughly monitoring those balloons from the initial stage, and military experts are retrieving the fallen balloons in the shortest possible time. We can end the North’s substandard acts only when we clearly show that the regime has nothing to gain from flying such filthy balloons across the border. As the North aims to trigger an internal conflict in the South with such attacks, I sincerely ask our citizens to trust their government.

What’s your reaction to opponents’ claim that your guideline as defense minister on responding to the North’s attacks — “an immediate and fierce fight to the finish” — can excessively provoke North Korea? I can’t agree. North Korea has been constantly threatening South Korea’s security by disclosing its nuclear material production facilities and launching ballistic missiles. Before saying we are provoking the North, we must point to its blatant threats to our security. To respond to the North’s threats and prevent its provocations, we must remember the historical lesson that retaliation is deterrence and deterrence is peace.

Many people are concerned about the lax discipline of our military. Since the military is not a remote island, it cannot but reflect rapid social changes to some extent. During the liberal Moon Jae-in administration, military discipline noticeably weakened. The conservative Yoon Suk Yeol government is putting the impaired discipline back on track.

The Drone Operations Command was launched in September 2023 after a North Korean drone pierced the skies of Seoul nine months earlier. We are fully prepared to conduct offensive drone operations to prevent the North from provoking us that way. The drone command will be further reinforced with cutting-edge weapon systems to deter and deal with the North’s various asymmetric threats.

What do you think about “not a few South Koreans” who agree with Kim Jong-un’s declaration of “two different states” on the Korean Peninsula? It feels like a déjà vu of the tumultuous period shortly after the liberation of Korea on Aug. 15, 1945. When the Tripartite Conference in Moscow in December that year decided on the trusteeship of Korea, communists in the South spearheaded a campaign against the move. But after the Soviet Union issued an order to approve the trusteeship, Park Hon-yong, the leader of the Workers’ Party of South Korea, immediately changed his mind to follow the directive. North Korean leader Kim Il Sung soon started a fratricidal war, which eventually lead to Park’s miserable death. Anti-constitutional forces must reflect on the past.

What effort is the government making to protect the North Korean people’s right to know? We are working to help North Koreans open their eyes to the value of freedom and have a stronger desire for liberty and unification. The government is planning and producing various contents that can objectively understand the North — such as the “North Korean Human Rights Report” and the “North Korean Economic and Social Reality Awareness Report.” We will support various activities aimed at spreading diverse information to the North through loudspeakers and radio broadcasts.

What do you think is the reason for North Korea’s first exposure of its production facility for highly enriched uranium? North Korea wants to draw attention to its nuclear program before the U.S. presidential election. South Korean and U.S. intelligence agencies have been closely tracking the North’s nuclear facilities, and have established an unprecedented extended deterrence system through the Korea-U.S. Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG). We will continue devising an effective system to integrate nuclear and conventional weapons based on the “Korea-U.S. Guidelines for Nuclear Deterrence and Nuclear Operations on the Korean Peninsula.” We have the ability to detect and intercept any missile attack from the North based on the joint intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) and missile defense system. Our military has been enhancing the “Korean 3-axis defense system” capability. If the North uses nuclear weapons and missiles, the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation (KMPR) operation and the allies’ nuclear and conventional operation will deal a fatal blow to the North.

Do you really think North Korea will carry out its 7th nuclear test around the U.S. Nov. 5 presidential election? There’s a possibility of the North conducting a nuclear test to strategically pressure us or to miniaturize its nuclear warheads. But the more the North advances its nuclear capabilities, the stronger the nuclear deterrence of the international community, including South Korea and the United States, will be. The North must realize the “paradox of nuclear weapons.” Given the international community’s agreement to denuclearize North Korea, we won’t skip denuclearization and go straight to nuclear arms reduction talks.

What meaning do you attach to the launch of the Strategic Command on the Armed Forces Day? The command under the Ministry of National Defense is the first strategic unit to integrate and operate our military’s strategic capabilities — such as F-35s, submarines and missiles — to deter and deal with the threats from the North’s nuclear arms, missiles and other types of weapons of mass destruction. The Strategic Command will put into action the president’s strong determination to tackle the North’s nuclear threat. We will ratchet up the level of our operational capabilities in several areas — including space and the electromagnetic spectrum — in line with changes in the strategic environment.

If our nuclear armament is difficult, many Koreans want to revise the Korea-U.S. nuclear agreement to the level of the U.S.-Japan agreement to secure nuclear potential. The most realistic solution to respond to the North’s nuclear threat is to strengthen the South-U.S. extended deterrence. That’s why the two leaders launched the NCG with the Washington Declaration last year, and this year, the two leaders approved the “Korea-U.S. Guidelines for Nuclear Deterrence and Nuclear Operations on the Korean Peninsula.”

Will Trump bring up the issue of U.S. troop withdrawal again if he is elected? The alliance has evolved over the past 70 years. Unlike during Trump’s first term, South Korea’s status has greatly changed now that the confrontation between the two camps has intensified following the Ukraine War. How many countries among U.S. allies have a military and economic power as strong as South Korea? America will likely have trouble finding a reliable substitute other than South Korea.

Do you believe Trump will rush to directly talk with Kim Jong-un again if he is re-elected? After the 2019 Hanoi summit ended with no deal, Kim Jong-un returned home empty-handed. He will still seek the international recognition of North Korea as a nuclear power and the lifting of sanctions. But it will be difficult for Washington to accept them.

Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.