Korea's population to shrink by a third over next 50 years, gov't data shows

Korea’s population is projected to shrink by about 30 percent in the next 50 years, according to Statistics Korea.

A newborn nursery at a public postpartum care center in Seoul on Dec. 26, 2023 [YONHAP]

Korea’s population is projected to shrink by about 30 percent in the next 50 years, while the global population is expected to surge 25 percent during the same period, according to a report Statistics Korea released Monday.

The organization expects the country's dismal birthrate and rapid aging to bring Korea’s median age to 63.4 years by 2072 — when it projects that the global average will remain at 39.2 years, based on its own population growth projection data as well as the United Nations' World Population Prospects 2024.

Statistics Korea projects that the country's population will drop 30.8 percent from 52 million this year to 36 million by 2072. It expects the global population, on the other hand, to expand 25.2 percent and reach 10.2 billion over the same period.

Europe's population is forecast to decrease 14 percent during the cited period while Africa's is expected to more than double. North America will experience a 17 percent increase, Latin America 7 percent, and Asia 7 percent.

Asia will continue to represent a majority, or 50.4 percent, of the global population in 2072, with India slated to grow 16 percent to 1.7 billion and remain the world's most populous nation.

The continent's share will, however, shrink, per the organization's forecast, which predicts that Africa's population will account for 31.4 percent of the world's population where it currently makes up 18.6 percent.

Statistics Korea expects that the global number of older adults will grow and that Korea's population will age much faster than those of other nations.

The organization expects older adults 65 and older to make up 47.7 percent of Korea's population five decades from now — they currently encompass 19.2 percent of the nation — while the global average is projected to rise from 10.2 percent to 20.2 percent.

Korea's median age will rise from 46.1 to 63.4 by 2072, per the report, while the global average will grow from 30.6 to 39.2. Korea’s current median age is 3.5 years higher than that of Europe, a gap that is forecast to widen to 15.4 years by 2072.

Korea is currently grappling with a chronically low birthrate. The total fertility rate — the average number of children to which a woman is expected to give birth during her lifetime — reached a record low of 0.72 in 2023, far below the 2.1 births per woman needed to maintain a stable population without immigration.

BY SHIN HA-NEE [shin.hanee@joongang.co.kr]