[Editorial] Tackle debt crisis

Korea in bind over looming US rate cut due to surging debt, property market

A clear warning sign for policymakers is on the horizon: surging debt -- not only in the South Korean government, but also among households.

According to data from the Finance Ministry and the Bank of Korea, the combined debt of the South Korean government and households has surpassed 3,000 trillion won ($2.26 trillion) for the first time.

In detail, the country’s combined national debt and household debt came in at 3,042 trillion won at the end of the second quarter this year. This negative record is about 127 percent of the country’s nominal gross domestic product, which stood at 2,401 trillion won last year.

The latest debt figure is also worrisome in consideration of the brisk pace of its increase. The national debt reached 1,146 trillion won, up 30.4 trillion won from the previous quarter, hurt by the slowdown of the economy and a sharp decrease in tax revenue. Over the same period, household debt also surged by 13.8 trillion won to a record high of 1,896 trillion won on the strength of a recovery in the property market that in turn encouraged more people to take out loans to purchase new houses.

Experts and government officials are now pointing to a host of factors that have driven up the debt total. The government is accused of rolling out special loan programs that offer lower interest rates, which have worked as the impetus for people to seek loans from banks.

Banks are also under fire for focusing on the household debt market, where it is relatively safer and easier to boost revenue and profits compared with the risk-laden corporate loan market.

The exact answer is somewhere in between the government’s misguided signals and the bank’s decision to ride mainly on the recent recovery in the housing market and related loan services.

The deepening debt crisis matters for the country’s economy in general, especially at a time when the United States is widely expected to slash the benchmark interest rates, a move that will put more pressure on the Bank of Korea to follow suit.

“The time has come for policy to adjust,” US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in prepared remarks Friday. “We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability.”

Powell’s unambiguous comment signaled that the US is finally moving to adjust its interest rate, amid confidence that the US economy can pull off a soft landing after a long period of inflation fight.

The problem is that the Bank of Korea, which froze its key rates Thursday, does not have much room to follow the cue of the US Federal Reserve. The country’s central bank decided to keep rates unchanged due to growing volatility in the housing market and surging household debt. Lowering rates at this point is bound to fuel the bubble to inflate further, a logic that has pushed the central bank to stay the course until fresh changes appear.

Meanwhile, the government and financial authorities are generating confusion. For instance, Lee Bok-hyun, head of the Financial Supervisory Service, said Sunday that the recent increase in the mortgage loan rates by banks is “not what the financial authorities wanted.” Lee also pledged to intervene in the banking sector to address the issue.

But it was those very financial authorities’ continued pressure that made banks raise the mortgage loan rates. Just last month, Lee had said that banks’ move to extend loans in connection with the expectations for a rate cut and a rebound in housing prices could worsen the household debt problem -- a remark that squarely contradicts his new stance.

The Yoon Suk Yeol administration also sends confusing signals that interest rates should be lowered to revitalize domestic demand, even though it could aggravate the household debt problem.

The increase in debt, regardless of whether it involves the government or households, should be closely watched and managed. To that end, policymakers are required to send consistent market signals, while taking proper steps to prevent debt crisis.

By Korea Herald(khnews@heraldcorp.com)