Yoon’s allies on the tightrope

Political Extended deterrence May be what YOON desperately needs now.

Chang Se-jeongThe author is an editorial writer of the JoongAng Ilbo. President Yoon Suk Yeol has been persistently unpopular at home, as underscored by the governing party’s crushing defeat in the April 10 parliamentary elections. But he at least had scored points on the foreign and security front over the last two years. He normalized Korea’s ties with Japan, earned back confidence from the United States, and reinforced security cooperation with Washington and Tokyo. The president restored the nuclear reactor industry on the brink of collapse as a result of his predecessor’s nuclear phase-out policy, and helped the country to win a record $17.3 billion deal to build two nuclear power plants in the Czech Republic.

But the president’s scorecard on foreign and security affairs faces challenges now. On top of his aides’ fumbles on the foreign and security fields, the external climate has turned increasingly menacing. The presidential office and the Foreign Ministry scurried to respond to the shocking elevation of North Korea-Russia partnership to the level of a mutual defense commitment after a June summit in Pyongyang. Seoul proved slack in its capacity to gather and assess intelligence.

President Yoon responded to the assassination attempt on U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump seven hours after the shocking incident in Korea’s ally. He offered good wishes to Trump later than the heads of Hungary and Honduras, not to mention other key allies of the United States such as the United Kingdom, Japan, Australia and Israel. At the time, Yoon’s security advisers had been accompanying their boss to the inaugural event for North Korean Defectors’ Day. But that cannot be an excuse. Would his advisers report late about a raid by North Korea if the commander in chief is tending to another business?

The arrest of Sue Mi Terry, a former CIA analyst, on charges of acting as an unreported spy for the South Korean intelligence agency also can work unfavorably for President Yoon. The debilitation of the National Intelligence Service, which deepened under the last liberal government, led up to the embarrassment of the Korean intelligence operation.

U.S. President Joe Biden’s sudden withdrawal from the race poses as the toughest test for President Yoon during his remaining three years. The possibility of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reportedly resigning from office in September also adds to the uncertainty. Yoon has been capitalizing on his personal rapport with Biden and Kishida to strengthen his diplomatic standing and security alliance.

The change of faces in the leadership of the United States and Japan can cause an upset to President Yoon’s standing, as he would have to nurse new bond and networks around Vice President Kamala Harris, who will likely emerge as the new Democratic presidential candidate in place of Biden.

Who will become the next U.S. president remains murky. But if Trump returns to the White House, he could directly deal with Pyongyang instead of going through Seoul, given his unruly behavior during his first presidency.

Trump boasts of his affinity with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who has hands on nuclear arms. “I got along very well with Kim Jong-un,” Trump said during his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. “It’s nice to get along with someone who has a lot of nuclear weapons or otherwise.” President Yoon cannot expect to score with Trump over friendly drinks as the latter does not drink. Nor can he match former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s arduous catering to golf-crazy Trump by rolling down the bunker.

President Yoon is also being challenged on his strongest turf — the prosecution. The questioning of his wife by prosecutors in a discreet location of the Presidential Security Service — instead of the prosecution’s office — has caused fissures between Prosecutor General Lee One-seok and Lee Chang-soo, the head of the Seoul Central District Prosecutors’ Office in charge of the investigations on the first lady. The relationship between Yoon and his once-protégé Han Dong-hoon, the new leader of the governing People Power Party, also remains shaky despite their showy makeup over drinks — nonalcoholic, in Han’s case.

President Yoon must be able to broaden and reinforce his alliances at home and abroad to survive the challenges ahead. He will lose grounds if he removes the legs that support his seat one by one. Since he doesn’t have “nuclear weapons,” he must mobilize all possible means, including “conventional weapons,” to defend himself. Extended deterrence on the political front could be what he desperately needs now.