Populism and extremism are twins

What happened in the U.S. Capitol and Brasilia can be repeated in Seoul.

Chang Duk-jinThe author is a professor of sociology at Seoul National University. The assassination attempt on former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump was certainly an unfortunate episode. Nevertheless, not so many seemed to be greatly surprised, as what could have happened anytime eventually happened.

It’s not just Trump. Political terror and violence have rampaged across the world over the past decade amid a global retreat of democracy. Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, dubbed “Brazil’s Donald Trump,” was in critical condition after being stabbed in the stomach while campaigning in 2018. But the incident helped the far-right candidate get elected president.

After he was defeated by former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the 2022 election, Bolsonaro’s supporters staged riots across the country, claiming the election was “stolen” and demanding the military expel President-elect Lula. The violent scenes had huge repercussions on Brazilian politics, as they was reminiscent of the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol after Trump’s defeat in the 2020 election. Watching the latest assassination attempt on Trump in Milwaukee, Bolsonaro immediately linked it to the stabbing attack on him six years ago and attributed their miraculous survivals to “the will of God.”

Europe is no exception. On May 15, Slovakia’s populist Prime Minister Robert Fico was gravely wounded after being shot multiple times at a political event. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said he received death threats after the assassination attempt on his Slovakian counterpart. In Poland, Paweł Bogdan Adamowicz, the mayor of Gdansk, died after being stabbed at a charity event in 2019. In Germany — once deemed “the last bastion of democracy in Europe” — was no different, as clearly seen in the death of Kassel mayor Walter Lübcke from a gunshot wound to the head the same year. In France, more than 50 candidates and their campaign aides suffered physical violence ahead of the high-stakes French parliamentary elections in early June.

Would it be any different in Asia? In Japan, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated two years ago while speaking on a campaign trail. In Korea, majority opposition Democratic Party (DP) leader Lee Jae-myung luckily survived a stabbing attack on his neck, followed by the hospitalization of a People Power Party lawmaker after she was hit on the head by a 15-year-old student.

Political terror is an inevitable offshoot of populism — and populism and extremism are twins. James Piazza, a professor of political science at Pennsylvania State University, defines populism as a move to divide the world into two hostile sociopolitical forces, or “us vs. them.” In that paradigm of thought, ordinary people are patriotic, naïve and good-hearted, while the elite class are traitors, corrupt and arrogant. The latter group also dismiss cultural traditions of a state. A legitimate government naturally refers to a government upholding people’s wishes. But such elites often manipulate and fabricate what people really want.

If the professor’s description strikes a sympathetic chord among readers, that’s because such political mindsets are dominant in Korea. Local politicians even compel voters to have such attitude. Many studies show that people with populist mindsets tend to connive at political violence or even support it.

Physical violence is certainly not the only violence. Flexing their muscles on the excuse of upholding people’s wish also constitutes an act of violence, as graphically demonstrated by the chair of the Legislation and Judiciary Committee when he summoned active servicemen to a hearing and hurled excessive insults at them. Members of the DP took the action only to help bring down the incumbent president. They are convinced they can do that, as their counterparts are “traitors.” When politicians abuse their power, their radical supporters and opponents who are polls apart silently prepare another means of violence for their own goals.

An extremely bumpy road is ahead of Korean people before the 2027 presidential election. Regardless of who wins the race, democracy itself can be threatened.

The protracted trials on Lee Jae-myung — the former DP leader who aspires to rebid for the chairmanship of the majority party and run for president again despite many judicial risks from his tainted past — can pose a serious threat to our democracy. If Lee is found guilty in any of the multiple trials shortly before the 2027 election, an army of his supporters will think the election was stolen. But if he wins the election without any of the courts delivering its ruling until the election day, an armada of his opponents will naturally think the election was stolen. What happened in the U.S. Capitol and Brasilia can be repeated in the National Assembly and the presidential office in Seoul. Violence will rampage through the country without interruptions. The rulings — and courage — of the bench will determine the fate of Korea’s democracy. Judges must reach their conclusions fast — and in a convincing way.

Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.