Trump ally says 'strong' U.S. president will help South Korea

North Korea and Russia will cease to have a reason to trade weapons once the war in Ukraine ends, and Trump’s return to the White House could bring about that change, said Fred Fleitz, deputy director of the America First Policy Institute.

Fred Fleitz, deputy director of the America First Policy Institute (AFPI), speaks during an interview with the JoongAng Ilbo, an affiliate of the Korea JoongAng Daily, at Westin Josun Seoul in Jung District, central Seoul, on July 8. [JEON MIN-KYU]

North Korea and Russia will cease to have a reason to trade weapons once the war in Ukraine ends, and former U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to the White House could bring about that change, said Fred Fleitz, deputy director of the America First Policy Institute (AFPI), during a recent interview.

“With a strong American president, I think he can move North Korea away from this relationship and move Russia in another direction too because Trump also wants to end the war in Ukraine,” said Fleitz, who served as chief of staff for the National Security Council under the Trump administration, during an interview with the JoongAng Ilbo, an affiliate of the Korea JoongAng Daily, on Monday.

Calling the current close relationship between Pyongyang and Moscow a “marriage of convenience” that only “exists for now,” Fleitz evaluated Seoul’s move to review providing lethal weapons to Kyiv as an “appropriate response.”

Fleitz, considered one of Trump’s closest associates, is a former member of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and has served in the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), the State Department, and the House Intelligence Committee. He was visiting Seoul for four days from Sunday to Thursday, meeting with government officials, including First Vice Foreign Minister Kim Hong-kyun, and visiting the headquarters of Hyundai Motor Group.

Fleitz was accompanied by Steve Yates, a leading China expert at the AFPI, who also sat for the interview with the JoongAng Ilbo. Prior to the interview, the two experts clarified that they were not speaking for Trump or the former president’s current reelection campaign and that the AFPI, founded in 2021, is a nonprofit, nonpolitical and independent think tank.

Trump, the Republican candidate, will face incumbent President Joe Biden in the November U.S. presidential election.

The following interview has been edited for length and clarity.

Fred Fleitz, deputy director of the America First Policy Institute (AFPI), left, and Steve Yates, senior fellow at the AFPI, speak during an interview with the JoongAng Ilbo, an affiliate of the Korea JoongAng Daily, at Westin Josun Seoul in Jung District, central Seoul, on July 8. [JEON MIN-KYU]

Q: North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has made a de facto military alliance treaty with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and if he negotiates with the United States again, he might ask for more than he did at the Hanoi summit. How would you respond to that? Fleitz: I think this relationship with Putin is very dangerous, and it is moving North Korea in the wrong direction. North Korea was moving in the direction of normalizing relations with the United States, South Korea and Japan when Trump was in office. We know that the talks that Trump began with Kim weren’t successful, but I think Trump is going to try to restart them. And this relationship [between North Korea and Russia] is a marriage of convenience. Russia’s desperate for weapons and it’s getting artillery shells that are probably in very bad condition from North Korea for the war in Ukraine. But in the long term, Russia needs a relationship with South Korea – an economic relationship. South Korea can give Russia much more than North Korea can. So I don’t think [the Pyongyang-Moscow relationship] is going to be a permanent one.

If re-elected, Trump has said that he wants to end the war in Ukraine before he takes office next January. How can this be achieved? Fleitz: I am speaking for myself but I think [Trump’s] priority is to end what has become an endless war of attrition with the belief that we are faced with a lot of bad options here, and we have to pick the best of several bad options. The best of those options probably is to find a ceasefire. Trump has said that he’d like to solve this in 24 hours. We don’t know what his plan is, but I’ll tell you that a presidential candidate who says that is obviously committed to ending a conflict and I think it shows his seriousness. A big flaw with the Joe Biden administration is that there’s no interest in ending the conflict.

Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks during a presidential debate hosted by CNN with President Joe Biden in Atlanta on June 27. [AP/YONHAP]

South Korea is reconsidering supporting lethal weapons for Ukraine after Russia signed a treaty with North Korea. What do you think about South Korea providing lethal weapons for Ukraine? Fleitz: I think it was an appropriate response by the South Korean government to express its outrage that Russia is striking this relationship with North Korea that may allow it to acquire missile technology, maybe reentry vehicles that would increase its capability of firing nuclear warheads at the United States, not just at nations in the region. It was an outrageous thing to do.

To start the direct dialogue with North Korea again, Kim Jong-un would want more. He would want more than easing sanctions. Fleitz: We don’t know what Kim will want. I hope that Kim would like to first simply open up discussions with the president of the United States like he did last time. We didn’t promise Kim any concessions and we didn’t give him any. We don’t speak for where Trump is but I don’t think it’s necessarily the case that the North would put unusual conditions on resuming talks with Trump.

Is leader Kim trying to form a trilateral cooperation between Russia, China and North Korea? Yates: I think it’s very important that we work first and foremost with our allies in strengthening their independent capabilities and by making that a positive economic and security relationship. The contrast with what this other grouping might do will look less enticing. There is tension between Beijing and Moscow and there probably always will be. But for now, it seems like the motivation is primarily in Moscow to try to hold these pieces together. Beijing doesn’t really like anyone else dealing with Pyongyang – it likes to treat Pyongyang like is junior partner. So whether it’s the United States or South Korea or Russia dealing directly with North Korea not going through Beijing, that tends to bother Chinese leaders. So if we have any idea for how to disrupt this growing collaboration, it might be to encourage more of us to deal directly with North Korea to urge it to pursue a different path.

Fred Fleitz, deputy director of the America First Policy Institute (AFPI), speaks during an interview with the JoongAng Ilbo, an affiliate of the Korea JoongAng Daily, at Westin Josun Seoul in Jung District, central Seoul, on July 8. [JEON MIN-KYU]

Trump has hinted that he might allow South Korea to develop nuclear weapons, and with North Korea and Russia forming a military alliance, public support for nuclear weapons in South Korea is growing. Will Trump really let South Korea go nuclear? Fleitz: I understand there are some people who purport to be Trump advisors who have raised that issue, but I don’t know where Trump will come down on it. I think the principle of avoiding the proliferation of nuclear weapons is an important one, and the best way to protect South Korea from the nuclear threat from the North is to strengthen the U.S. nuclear umbrella to reassure South Korean officials that it’s strong and also to lower tensions with the North through dialogue. We are going to need, from a new administration, a fairly sophisticated foreign policy that can both be tough with our adversaries but also express a willingness to speak with them. I have been critical of President Biden on many grounds but I think he did some good things in the Washington Declaration and the trilateral summit between the U.S., South Korea and Japan last year and the joint exercises that we've been seeing. And I think initiatives like this will continue no matter who the president is next year, and I think they'll be expanded.

Some think that if he returns as president, Trump would reverse the results of the defense cost-sharing Special Measures Agreement (SMA) that Biden sealed with South Korea. Do you think a Trump-proof defense cost deal is possible? Fleitz: I don’t like anybody talking about “Trump-proofing.” I hear that from Europe also and I think it’s unfortunate because I believe the world was much more stable when Trump was president, and I’ve had heated discussions with people from The Economist magazine. They run Trump-proof articles all the time, and there's all this doom and gloom that they published about Trump, and they're simply wrong. Concerning the SMA, Trump has said he wants to make sure that members of alliances pay their fair share. But I think the relationship with South Korea will be very positive.

Does Trump still believe that South Korea is not paying enough? Fleitz: I think Trump is going to press all U.S. allies only to pay their fair share. I think the focus is going to be on France and Germany. I believe that the U.S.’s relationship with South Korea will be extraordinarily strong under Trump because of the growing threat from China and this new relationship between North Korea and Russia.

Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Miami, Flordia on Tuesday. [AP/YONHAP]

The U.S. presidential election has significant meaning to its allies and can change our alliance. Do you think the election results might impact the South Korea-U.S. alliance or South Korea-U.S.-Japan trilateral cooperation? Fleitz: What I would say is that the U.S.-South Korea relationship is a strong one and it's going to remain strong no matter who wins the election. But we believe that there will be a significant improvement in security in the Asia-Pacific if Trump wins. He's going to bring in what some people call the Trump doctrine, which will be peace through strength, an assertive and confident American president who I think will bring in a very, very talented foreign policy team who's going to reestablish deterrence to stand up to America's adversaries. Yates: I think there’s always been questions about the alliance and bilateral relations whenever presidential elections come or potential changes of administrations [are imminent]. I expect there will be no difference. There is the record of Trump’s first term tenure that informs what expectations might be going forward.

The Yoon Suk Yeol administration and the Biden administration focus on value diplomacy, and they prioritize issues like human rights and the environment. Should this focus change if Trump returns? Fleitz: I think one reason that the Biden administration's foreign policy has encountered so many problems is because they have their priorities wrong. Biden has said repeatedly the primary national security threat to the United States is climate change. No, it's not. The primary threat is China. A close second is nuclear war. Climate change is quite low on the list. I can tell you that if Trump wins the election, he's going to have a serious national security policy, and he's not going to be distracted by frankly frivolous issues that are not serious national security threats.

Then, should the Yoon administration also readjust its focus when it comes to foreign policies if Trump returns? Fleitz: I think Yoon already knows what these priorities are. I believe that you will find it much more productive, much more fulfilling to deal with Trump, who will take a more serious approach to the threat from China and North Korea.

Steve Yates, senior fellow at the America First Policy Institute (AFPI), speaks during an interview with the JoongAng Ilbo, an affiliate of the Korea JoongAng Daily, at Westin Josun Seoul in Jung District, central Seoul, on July 8. [JEON MIN-KYU]

South Korea is working to improve relations with China. If Trump increases pressure on China, won't it put countries like South Korea in a difficult position? Yates: I would frame the question a little differently in that the issue is not so much, "Would Trump put pressure back onto China?" as much as it is, "Will China continue to put pressure on its neighbors and the United States?" Because really it's China that has pushed issues of more confrontation, such as wolf warrior diplomacy. It's actually Xi Jinping's leadership that chose to increase conflict and tension. I don't think it was the Trump administration looking to go to battle. It's really China that has done some things to unsettle a lot of what's happening in the region. There is nothing in Trump’s policy that would have encouraged China to be more aggressive toward South Korea. I think that Trump’s pattern of engagement in his first term should have eliminated any questions of him being isolationist or anti-alliance.

BY PARK HYUN-JOO,LIM JEONG-WON [lim.jeongwon@joongang.co.kr]