It’s time to manage Korea-Russia relations

The government must build trust with Russia for future cooperation.

Chung Jae-hongThe author is an international, diplomatic and security news editor of the JoongAng Ilbo. South Korea and Russia continue exchanging warnings to each other not to cross a red line they drew on their own. The caveat was initiated by Russian President Vladimir Putin. In his June 19 summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang, Putin signed a new treaty upgrading the two countries’ relations to a “comprehensive strategic partnership” mandating “immediate military assistance when either side is attacked by outside forces.” The new treaty effectively restored their previous treaty after 28 years. In an earlier press conference with major news agencies, Putin deeply appreciated South Korea for “not providing military weapons to Ukraine.” But the new treaty he signed with Kim just two weeks ago after making the conciliatory gesture dealt a critical blow to South Korea’s security.

After South Korea announced a possible weapons supply to Ukraine after a National Security Council meeting last week, Putin called it “a big mistake,” adding that Russia can supply highly sophisticated weapons to North Korea in return.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un pose for a photo during a signing ceremony of the new partnership in Pyongyang, June 19, 2024. [AP/YONHAP]

In response, National Security Advisor Chang Ho-jin said, “If Russia provides North Korea with cutting-edge weapons, what options are really left for us?” His comment translates into a willingness to supply attack weapons to Ukraine without limits if Russia gives sophisticated weapons to North Korea. “It all depends on what Russia will do,” Chang said. Earlier, Putin toned down the significance of the new treaty. As the treaty didn’t deviate much from the 1961 treaty between the Soviet Union and North Korea, “Russia will not provide military support to North Korea, because the South will not invade the North,” he said.

The exchange of hawkish rhetoric showed what the “red line” drawn by South Korea and Russia means. South Korea regards Russia’s supply of sophisticated weapons to the North as an act of crossing the line, while Russia defines the South’s supply of attack weapons to Ukraine as the act. But such weapons supply benefits neither side, as it means both sides crossed the point of no return. That’s why South Korea and Russia are carefully managing their relations.

South Korea decided to not provide attack weapons to Ukraine — despite strong requests from the United States and NATO members to do so — for fear of inflicting irrevocable damages to its relations with Russia. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, South Korea’s relations with Russia turned icy as Moscow’s relations with the West deteriorated. If South Korea supplies military weapons to Ukraine under such volatile circumstances, South Korea won’t be able to maintain good relations with Russia after the end of the war. If the South’s relations with Russia worsen, it will have a lasting impact on the peace of the Korean Peninsula given Moscow’s close ties with Pyongyang.

After inviting Russia’s isolation from the international community by invading Ukraine in 2022, Putin now gets support for the war from North Korea and other dictatorships. Despite shocks from signing the new treaty, some experts bet on “no substantial changes” in the North-Russia relations. Andrei Lankov, a Russian professor at Kookmin University, dismissed the effect of the new treaty on the security of the Korean Peninsula, saying “All the hoopla over Putin’s visit to Pyongyang will become a footnote in inter-Korean history.”

South Korea’s relations with North Korea, China and Russia have worsened over the past two years since the Yoon Suk Yeol administration’s focus on bolstering relations with the United States and Japan. Clearly, Seoul’s cooperation with Washington and Tokyo is important for the South’s survival, but its relations with Pyongyang, Beijing and Moscow are also crucial for the peace and prosperity of the peninsula. South Korea’s estranged relations with China and Russia resulted from the government’s value-based diplomacy with the U.S., Japan and the European Union. The biased diplomacy certainly weakened the South’s diplomatic leverage on the global stage. The time has come to strike a delicate balance in diplomacy.

Amid the tense exchange of warnings, South Korea cannot restore relations with Russia quickly. The government needs to take a step back and regain calmness. Having dialogue with even enemies is the art of diplomacy. Only then can the government manage a security crisis and restore its estranged relations. The government must build trust with Russia for future cooperation.