Births post first on-year increase in 19 months, but sustainability questioned

The unexpected rebound is attributed to a rise in marriages since August 2022, the end of the Covid-19 pandemic, coupled with the base effect.

A newborn baby [PIXABAY]

Korea recorded its first on-year rebound in the number of births in 19 months in April, data showed Wednesday.

However, the sustainability of the upward trend remains uncertain, given the significant base effect from last April's unusually sharp decline in births.

The report, released by Statistics Korea on Wednesday, revealed that 19,049 babies were born in April, a 2.8 percent increase compared to the same month last year. This is the first year-on-year increase in births since a 0.1 percent on-year rise in September 2022.

The unexpected rebound is attributed to a rise in marriages since August 2022, the end of the Covid-19 pandemic, coupled with the base effect.

As it typically takes about two years for a first child to be born after marriage, the recent increase in marriages is now starting to be reflected in the birth statistics.

Given the rise in marriages, birth rates might continue to increase in the second half of this year.

"Considering the average two-year period since August 2022, there is a high likelihood that births will increase from August to October this year," said Lim Young-il, head of population trends at Statistics Korea, adding that there is potential for growth in the second half of the year.

Additionally, April 2023 saw a record low of 18,528 births, a sharp 12.5 percent decrease from the previous year. Births in April 2011-2012 exceeded 40,000, but this number dropped to the 30,000s in 2013, entered the 20,000s in 2018, and fell below 20,000 for the first time last year.

Analysts, however, suggest more time is needed to determine if this marks the start of a sustained rebound.

The cumulative number of births from January to April was 79,523, the lowest on record.

The number of deaths in April was 28,659, a 4 percent increase from a year earlier, resulting in a natural population decrease of 9,610. Korea's population has been on a decline for 54 consecutive months.

Marriages saw a significant increase due to the base effect of a record low in April last year. There were 18,039 marriages in April, up 24.6 percent from the previous year.

The number of divorces in April was 7,701, a 5.7 percent increase from the same month last year.

BY SEO JI-EUN [seo.jieun1@joongang.co.kr]