Experts urge talks as Korea-Japan development pact for East China Sea nears end

As Korea and Japan's joint development agreement for the continental shelf in the East China Sea nears its expiration in 2028, experts are urging the two nations to negotiate a new deal within the next year to avoid a chaotic "no deal" situation.

Flames rise from a Chinese natural gas production platform near Block 7, with its foundation confirmed in May 2022. [JAPAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE]

As Korea and Japan's joint development agreement for the continental shelf in the East China Sea nears its expiration in 2028, experts are urging the two nations to negotiate a new deal within the next year to avoid a chaotic "no deal" situation.

Since the agreement took effect on June 22, 1978, "Block 7" in the continental shelf in the East China Sea has remained undeveloped. From June 22 next year, either side can declare the agreement terminated, potentially leading to turmoil when the 50-year period ends.

Korea and Japan agreed to pursue the joint exploration and development of Block 7, which is believed to hold vast reserves of oil, gas and minerals.

Discussions are underway to find diplomatic solutions, possibly leveraging the 60th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between Korea and Japan.

Yet the path to a resolution is fraught with challenges, including Korea's anxiety over Japan possibly unilaterally terminating the agreement and changes in international law favoring Japan's jurisdictional claims over up to 90 percent of Block 7.

China has aggressively extracted oil and natural gas from surrounding waters, further complicating the situation.

China continues its energy development in the East China Sea, with 18 confirmed natural gas platforms near Block 7, some of which have been producing gas since 2006.

Beyond energy resources, China's military activity in the area raises concerns for Korea, Japan, and their ally, the United States, potentially threatening U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy and maritime transport routes.

The potential political backlash from terminating the agreement could harm recently improved Korea-Japan relations under the Yoon Suk Yeol administration.

Experts emphasize the need for a political solution and suggest that Korea and Japan find mutually agreeable alternatives.

Park Chang-gun, assistant professor of Japanese Studies at Kookmin University, outlined Japan's options, including joint development with China, signing a new agreement with Korea, or unilateral development.

"It would be difficult to maintain the current agreement given the international precedents favoring Japan," Park said. "The only viable solution that considers the national interests and long-term trust between Korea and Japan is to sign a new agreement."

Diplomatic sources indicate sentiment within the Japanese government favors a bilateral resolution without China's involvement.

One proposed idea is to use the 60th anniversary of Korea-Japan diplomatic normalization next year to sign a new agreement, addressing the Block 7 issue and enhancing bilateral relations.

Experts suggest a comprehensive second joint declaration and a new Korea-Japan continental shelf joint development agreement, similar to the Korea-Japan Joint Declaration of 1998 and the fisheries agreement signed between then-Korean President Kim Dae-jung and then-Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi.

Former President Kim Dae-jung, front left, and former Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi sign the the New Korea-Japan Partnership towards the Twenty-first Century, which includes 11 articles addressing historical issues, on Oct. 8, 1998. Also known as the Kim-Obuchi Declaration, it was the first time a Japanese prime minister directly apologized to South Korea for causing harm and suffering to the people during the period of colonial rule. [KIM DAE-JUNG PRESIDENTIAL LIBRARY & MUSEUM]

"The current response, which is led by the Foreign Ministry, has been overly focused on legal interpretations," a government source said, requesting anonymity.

"Without a top-down political decision by the leaders of both countries, resolving the issue will be difficult," the source said, suggesting the presidential office take a leading role in negotiations with Japan.

The role of the United States is also crucial, as it seeks to prevent conflicts between Korea and Japan from disrupting strengthened trilateral security cooperation. Block 7's value in countering China adds to its importance.

Last August, U.S. Rep. Ami Bera mentioned the Block 7 issue ahead of the Camp David trilateral summit, discussing potential joint exploration in the East China Sea, including the possible involvement of a U.S. energy company.

However, the Block 7 issue remains underappreciated in Washington.

"Korea needs to fully mobilize its diplomatic efforts to secure U.S. support for a new agreement with Japan, as the U.S. can still play a crucial role in pressuring both countries to reach a deal, even without taking a public stance," a government source said.

BY ONUKI TOMOKO, KIM SANG-JI, PARK HYUN-JU, SEO JI-EUN [seo.jieun1@joongang.co.kr]