Inter-Korea tensions subside as both sides review cross-border tit-for-tat

Detecting subtle changes in North Korea’s public stance toward South Korea, Seoul adjusted its loudspeaker broadcasts to North Korea per the principle of proportionality.

From left, waste balloons sent by North Korea are seen near Jamsil Bridge, the coast off of Incheon and Geumcheon-dong in Paju, Gyeonggi. [YONHAP]

Tensions triggered by North Korea’s sending of waste-laden balloons to South Korea have entered a lull. Detecting subtle changes in North Korea’s public stance toward South Korea, Seoul adjusted its loudspeaker broadcasts to North Korea per the principle of proportionality.

Venting after a failed satellite launch?

On May 28 and 29, North Korea launched about 350 waste balloons toward South Korea. It was two days since Kim Kang-il, North Korea’s vice minister of defense, declared on May 26 that “mounds of wastepaper and filth will soon be scattered over the border areas and the interior of the ROK and it will directly experience how much effort is required to remove them.”

On the surface, the waste balloons were a response to anti-North Korea leaflets sent by a private South Korean organization, but some analysts say it could be a reaction to the embarrassment caused by its failed launch of a military reconnaissance satellite on May 27.

At the time of the launch, Japan’s NHK broadcast a video of a North Korean satellite exploding in mid-air filmed near the border between North Korea and China, while South Korean military authorities released a video of the explosion filmed by a patrol ship on duty along the inter-Korean maritime border in the Yellow Sea. The entire world witnessed North Korea’s failed satellite launch virtually in real-time.

A military reconnaissance satellite from North Korea explodes in this video capture image released by the Joint Chiefs of Staff on May 28. [YONHAP]

Ignored warnings of 'unbearable measures'

Even after North Korea's first wave of waste-laden balloons, North Korea continued its so-called hybrid provocations by alternately using GPS radio interferences and missile launches. Accordingly, the South Korean government warned on May 31 that if North Korea did not stop, the government would take "measures unbearable to North Korea.”

However, Pyongyang released a second wave of 720 waste-laden balloons on the night of June 1. Balloons fell in Seoul, Gyeonggi and the Chungcheong and Gyeongsang areas, and photos of car windshields being damaged by waste balloons were posted on social media such as Facebook.

As actual damage from the balloons emerged and security concerns grew, Seoul decided on June 2 to make good on its threat. The "unbearable measures" took the form of resumed loudspeaker broadcasts to North Korea, given the regime's vulnerability to external information.

“Such dirty threats do not work against our government,” a senior official from South Korea's presidential office said on June 2.

Gu Byung-sam, spokesperson for Ministry of Unification, speaks during a press briefing at the Governmental Complex in Seoul on June 10. [YONHAP]

Passing responsibility to the South

About five hours later on the same day, North Korea announced in a statement signed by Vice Minister Kim that it would temporarily stop sending waste-laden balloons.

However, the North conditioned this suspension on private South Korean organizations ceasing their launch of anti-regime leaflets into the country. In effect, it tried to pressure those private organizations to stop while passing responsibility for the situation onto the South Korean government.

Observers believe the North employed a "hit and run" strategy, with the regime believing it would lose more than it gained if the South fully resumed its loudspeaker broadcasts.

Some experts say the North failed in its initial goal of stoking conflict inside South Korea by heightening security fears as a disgusted South Korean public quickly gravitated in favor of action against the North.

The South Korean government did not turn back, quickly suspending the 2018 inter-Korean military agreement. This provided a basis for resuming loudspeaker broadcasts and opened the way for restarting military exercises in frontline areas.

A senior South Korean official said North Korea's recent behavior substantially backfired, with the regime deciding it needed to break the vicious cycle of hybrid provocation.

National Security Office Director Chang Ho-jin, right center, spekas during an emergency meeting of the National Security Council regarding North Korea's sending of waste balloons at the presidential office building in Yongsan District, central Seoul, on June 2. [YONHAP]

Breaking out the loudspeakers

Amid this intense confrontation, North Korea used another launch of anit-North leaflets as an excuse to send a third wave of waste-laden balloons on June 8 and 9. Experts say North Korea tried to back up its threats with action and maintain the initiative on the Korean Peninsula.

On June 9, the South Korean government responded by resuming loudspeaker broadcasts to North Korea for the first time in six years. The ball was back in North Korea’s court, with Seoul saying it was entirely up to the North to determine whether broadcasts continued.

In a June 9 statement by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s powerful sister, Kim Yo-jong, North Korea warned, “If the ROK simultaneously carries out the leaflet scattering and loudspeaker broadcasting provocation over the border, it will undoubtedly witness the new counteraction of the DPRK.”

The ROK and DPRK are the acronyms of South Korea and North Korea's official names.

Loudspeaker vehicles and equipment are seen during a training exercise in this file photo. [JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF]

Truce for now

The South Korean government, which had previously declared it would respond to North Korea’s successive provocations proportionally and step-by-step, did not transmit additional loudspeaker broadcasts despite North Korea’s fourth wave of waste-laden balloons.

Subtle changes in North Korea’s stance were presumed to have been detected through the balloons' contents and Kim Yo-jong’s statement.

In fact, Kim Yo-jong said, “As you will see, we have only scattered empty waste paper without any political agitation,” adding, “Our minimum reaction is only the just and reflective reaction at the very low level.”

Kim's equating of anti-North Korea leaflets and loudspeakers was noteworthy.

The third and fourth waves of balloons carried only waste paper and plastic, unlike the first and second waves, which carried excrement and other materials. This suggested Pyongyang was subtly adjusting its provocation level.

Accordingly, the South Korean government seems to have adjusted its response, calculating that continuing to respond strongly could lead to additional North Korean provocations.

The Unification Ministry said on June 11 that although the government continued to regard anti-Pyongyang leaflets as a free speech issue, it was seeking a meeting with the private organizations involved.

Observers inside and outside the government say this could be an opportunity for Seoul to indirectly request restraint from the groups in question by explaining the need to ease tensions with Pyongyang.

BY CHUNG YEONG-GYO, LIM JEONG-WON [lim.jeongwon@joongang.co.kr]