Defection of Yoon voters fueled DP victory: Poll

One out of ten people who voted for President Yoon Suk Yeol two years ago swung for the opposing Democratic Party (DP) in the April 10 general election, according to a JoongAng Ilbo survey released Monday.

President Yoon Suk Yeol, left, and Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung

One out of ten people who voted for President Yoon Suk Yeol two years ago swung for the opposing Democratic Party (DP) in the April 10 general election, according to a JoongAng Ilbo survey released Monday.

The poll, which questioned 1,000 adults over 18 from Wednesday to Friday, also showed that the liberal DP largely succeeded in retaining support from people who voted for party leader Lee Jae-myung during his presidential run.

While Yoon narrowly won the 2022 election by a razor-thin margin of 0.73 percentage points, the DP managed to widen its edge over the conservative People Power Party (PPP) across regional constituencies to 5.4 percentage points in the general election, according to data released by the National Election Commission.

According to the JoongAng Ilbo survey, only 83.8 percent of people who lent Yoon their support two years ago said they also voted for PPP candidates in the general election, while 10.1 percent said they voted for DP candidates this time.

By contrast, 88.6 percent of survey respondents who said they had voted for Lee during the presidential election said they also cast ballots for DP candidates in the latest election, with only 5.8 percent saying they changed their vote to support the PPP.

Only 72.8 percent of former Yoon supporters said they selected the conservative People Future Party on the proportional representation ballot, while 9.0 percent said they voted for the Reform Party.

The People Future Party is a satellite association created by the PPP to compete for 46 parliamentary seats filled by proportional representation, while the Reform Party was created by former PPP leader Lee Jun-seok just before the election.

While proportional representation ballots cast by former Lee supporters were more evenly split between the DP’s satellite party and the Rebuilding Korea Party led by former Justice Minister Cho Kuk, the two liberal parties together retained the support of 89.2 percent of people who said they voted for Lee two years ago.

The survey also revealed that voters’ perceptions of Yoon had soured in the two years since he was elected president.

Of the respondents who said they voted for the president, 56.6 percent said they agreed with the statement that he “speaks only about his own views,” while 51.3 percent said they believe he “doesn’t acknowledge his mistakes.”

Just over half of former Yoon supporters also agreed with the statement that he “lacks empathy.”

But Lee’s image among his former supporters was comparatively more positive.

Only one-fourth of people who voted for the DP leader in the presidential election agreed with the statement that he “lacks empathy,” while 69.3 percent disagreed with the statement that he “speaks only about his own views.”

Almost two-thirds of former Lee supporters also disagreed with the statement that the DP leader “is ethically compromised,” despite his facing trial for charges of corruption and bribery stemming from his time as governor of Gyeonggi and mayor of Seongnam.

According to Ha Sang-eung, a professor of political studies at Sogang University, the criminal accusations levied against Lee “appear not to have influenced the election” as much observers believed they might.

Almost one-fourth of survey respondents said they had decided whom they would support in the general election by mid-January, which coincides with the release of a video recording showing first lady Kim Keon Hee accepting a luxury Dior bag from a Korean American pastor.

Ten percent of respondents said they decided in mid-February, when Cho established the Rebuilding Korea Party, while 12.5 percent said they had fixed their choice by early March when the DP was embroiled in controversy over its candidate nomination process.

Another 7.4 percent said they settled on their choice in the latter half of March, when President Yoon drew flak for commenting during a Seoul grocery store that green onions were “reasonably priced” at 850 won ($0.62) per bundle.

Yoon was the lowest-ranked politician along a feeling thermometer compiled from the survey results, scoring a lukewarm 33.5 degrees Celsius.

His rival, Lee Jae-myung, was the highest-ranked at 43.1 degrees, followed by Cho at 41.7 degrees. Former PPP interim leader Han Dong-hoon scored 42.2 degrees, while Lee Jun-seok was rated at 39.0 degrees.

The feeling thermometer suggests the PPP’s election strategy of targeting Lee Jae-myung and Cho failed to resonate with voters, who exhibited cooler attitudes toward the president than toward the two liberal leaders.

BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]