IMF says global economy is improving but Korea is stagnating

The closing price of the Korean stock market and the won-dollar exchange rate are displayed on the status board of the dealing room at Hana Bank\'s headquarters in Jung-gu, Seoul, Sunday afternoon, after the Kospi fell nearly 1 percent. Yonhap

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its World Economic Outlook (WEO) on April 16, maintaining Korea's economic growth forecast at 2.3 percent this year, the same as in January. Global economic growth rate, on the other hand, was raised by 0.1 percentage point from the previous forecast to 3.2 percent. The U.S. growth forecast for this year stood at 2.7 percent, 0.6 percentage points higher than the previous forecast. This means that the global economy will improve, but Korea will stagnate. Korea, which has an open economic system vulnerable to external variables, will suffer more as the international situation becomes unstable, such as a war in the Middle East. The exchange rate of around 1,400 won per dollar is also a sign that Korea's economic base is shaking.

It's hard to see any vitality in the current Korean economy. The triple whammy of high inflation, high interest rates, and the high exchange rate is dampening private demand. According to the report released by Shinhan Bank on April 17, the average monthly food cost per household exceeded 600,000 won for the first time last year due to rising inflation and essential living expenses, including transportation costs and monthly rents, reached 1.39 million won.

People have no choice but to tighten their belts as their incomes do not increase and the situation in the job market is bad. Due to the increase in raw material prices, the food industry says a price hike is inevitable, and various hikes in utility bills, which were postponed after the general election, are also about to take effect, forcing domestic demand to keep shrinking.

The future prospects of Korean companies are also unclear. According to a survey conducted by CEO Score, the operating profits of Korea's top 100 companies fell 18.8 percent last year from a decade ago to 7.64 trillion won, but Taiwan's top 100 companies outpaced the Korean companies with a 136.6 percent increase from 36.397 trillion won to 86.960 trillion won. The outlook for semiconductor manufacturing and export, Korea's biggest key industries, is also bleak. This is because the U.S. came up with a strategy to produce 20 percent of advanced semiconductors in the country by 2030 by investing $52.7 billion, including subsidies, amid the semiconductor war between the U.S. and China.

The government, which should serve as a bulwark for households and businesses, is in a worse situation. Last year, it suffered a deficit of 87 trillion won in managed fiscal balance after insisting on an outdated tax cut policy. This year, Korea is also facing a difficult time as the government abolished the roadmap for realization of declared real estate prices, which has the effect of tax cuts for the rich, and adjusted various levies that have filled the government's coffers. Despite the crushing defeat in the general election due to the failure to stabilize prices, the president's official response after the election shows no signs of changing his policy direction. The golden time to escape from the economic crisis is running out.

※This article has undergone review by a professional translator after being translated by an AI translation tool.