Signals of possible North Korea-Japan dialogue, is it 'green light' or red herring?

Kim Yo Jong, vice chairwoman of the Workers\' Party of Korea. Korean Central Television|Yonhap

In the beginning of the New Year, North Korea and Japan's top-level officials are exchanging signals for improving relations and even leaving open the possibility of a summit meeting. However, many analysts believe that it may just end with a change in atmosphere as finding common ground on the problem of Japanese abductees by North Korea, which is the thorniest issue between the two countries, is not easy. Nevertheless, there's speculation that a surprise meeting might be arranged as the domestic political demands and international situations for both Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un align.

The uneasy atmosphere was detected in a condolence message sent by the North Korean leader to the Japanese Prime Minister at the beginning of the year. On January 5, Kim said, "I express my sincere sympathy and consolation to the bereaved families and victims" regarding the earthquake that occurred in Ishikawa Prefecture, Japan. It is unprecedented not only for Kim to send a message to a Japanese Prime Minister, but for him to address Kishida as "Your Excellency," a formal title.
For Kishida, who has shown a strong commitment to a North Korea-Japan summit, it can be interpreted as a "green light" from North Korea. The Japanese Prime Minister responded by referring to "specific activities.” When asked about a North Korea-Japan summit during a meeting at the House of Representatives’ Budget Committee on February 9, he said, "We are engaged in a number of specific activities," and added, "In light of the current state of North Korea-Japan relations, I strongly feel the need to boldly change the status quo." Akira Amari, former secretary-general of the Liberal Democratic Party and a close aide to Kishida, also appeared on Fuji TV on the 11th and said, "We have already used a lot of cards, and now the decision will be up to the top leaders."

After a week, North Korea responded publicly to Kishida's remarks. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s sister, Kim Yo-jong, evaluated Kishida's statements positively in a statement on the 15th, saying, "The two countries can open up a new future together," and adding, “The day may come when Prime Minister (Kishida) visits Pyongyang." Kim directly mentioned about a summit meeting between North Korea and Japan that Kishida is working hard on, although she stuck to her previous stance on the issue of abductees blocking bilateral relations.

Japan claims that 17 of its citizens were abducted and that 12 are in North Korea, excluding five who returned in 2002 in a temporary return. North Korea, on the other hand, argues that eight of the 12 people died and the other four did not come to the North at all, saying, "There is no abduction issue to resolve now.” North Korea and Japan reached the "Stockholm Agreement" in 2014 that North Korea would re-investigate the abduction of Japanese people and Japan would ease independent sanctions on North Korea, but failed to narrow the fundamental differences between their opinions.

Kim Yo-jong’s statement was interpreted as an attempt to create a rift in the strengthening trilateral cooperation between South Korea, the U.S., and Japan by promoting improvement in North Korea-Japan relations. The timing of the announcement also suggests that it was intended to overshadow the effects of South Korea's recent diplomatic relations with North Korea's brotherly neighbor Cuba.

Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said in a phone interview on the 18th, "Even though North Korea is well aware that it is difficult to find a contact point on the abduction issue, it issued such a discourse with the purpose of blurring the focus while looking at a small possibility.” He added, "The mere creation of a contact phase between North Korea and Japan has a kind of political effect that shakes the focus of security cooperation between South Korea, the U.S. and Japan." He explained that is why North Korea made the announcement on the basis of Kim Yo-jong’s personal opinion, not in the name of the North Korean authorities or institutions.

Chances are high that Japan will take advantage of this atmosphere. If Japan wants to see a dramatic rebound in Kishida's approval rating, which has fallen to 16.9 percent, there is no better option than North Korea.

Yuji Hosaka, a professor at Sejong University, said in a phone interview, "From North Korea's point of view, Kishida's flexible attitude of ‘having conversation first before addressing the abduction issue’ is advantageous compared to the approach of former Japanese Prime Ministers Shinzo Abe and Yoshihide Suga, who made the resolution of the abduction issue a precondition for dialogue. He added, "Even within the Kishida administration, there is no factor to raise the approval rating domestically, so there is continuous talk that it should be driven by issues about the Korean Peninsula."

After announcing his intention to pursue high-level talks between North Korea and Japan in May last year, Kishida has been strengthening communication with abductees, including meeting with abductee Hitomi Soga in July.

The U.S. is also supporting the North Korea-Japan talks. "We support North Korea's diplomatic efforts and Japan's efforts to resolve the abduction issue," said Jung Pak, the U.S. deputy special representative for North Korea, at a press conference on the 15th.

Kishida is likely to seek South Korea's support or acquiescence to the North Korea-Japan dialogue during his visit, which is expected to take place around March 20, and U.S. support for full-scale contact and dialogue during his state visit to the U.S. around April 10.

Professor Hosaka said, "Experts in Japan analyzes that the Biden administration, which does not want to create a third battlefield following the Ukraine and Hamas crisis, is likely to use Japan rather than the Yoon Suk-yeol administration, which pursues a hard-line policy toward North Korea, to manage the situation on the Korean Peninsula." He also added, "As North Korea defines South Korea as a 'two countries' rather than an ethnic group, Japan does not need to read South Korea’s countenance in its dialogue with North Korea.”

While the improvement of North Korea-Japan relations is contingent on a number of conditions, including the abduction issue, it is possible that Japan’s domestic political factors such as the Liberal Democratic Party’s presidential election (in September) and the U.S. presidential election (in November) can lead the improvement in North Korea-Japan relations. There are concerns that if contact and dialogue between North Korea and Japan take place, the Yoon Suk-yeol administration, which has completely cut off its dialogue channel with North Korea, could be alienated from issues related to the Korean Peninsula even though South Korea is a country directly involved.

※This article has undergone review by a professional translator after being translated by an AI translation tool.