Fate of election may rest in metro's 62 swing districts

Among the 121 constituencies in this region, 59 have been identified as safe seats for the PPP or the DP. Some 30 of Seoul's 49 constituencies have voted for the same party in at least four of the past five elections.

As the general election approaches with less than 65 days remaining, the political landscape in Korea is heating up, particularly in the greater Seoul area.

The two largest political parties, the People Power Party (PPP) and the Democratic Party (DP), are strategically placing key players in swing districts, anticipating a fiercely competitive election.

The JoongAng Sunday, a sister media outlet of the Korea JoongAng Daily, thoroughly analyzed past elections in the greater Seoul area.

Among the 121 constituencies in this region, 59 have been identified as safe seats for the PPP or the DP.

These safe seats are constituencies in which either party — or, in the case of the PPP, its conservative predecessors — has secured victory more than four times in the last five elections.

Additionally, 62 constituencies are deemed swing districts, where both parties have taken turns winning, making them crucial battlegrounds in the upcoming election.

The significance of swing districts is underscored by the fact that even a single victory in these areas in Seoul, Gyeonggi and Incheon could determine the entire election.

The report indicates that this year's competition is expected to be more intense than ever in these battlegrounds.

Compared to neighboring Gyeonggi and Incheon, constituencies in Seoul have more robust political bases for the parties they support.

Some 30 of Seoul's 49 constituencies have voted for the same party in at least four of the past five elections.

The analysis provides a detailed breakdown of the political landscape in various constituencies, highlighting the safe seats and swing states for both the PPP and the DP in the greater Seoul area, Gyeonggi and Incheon.

In Seoul, the PPP holds seven safe seats, including Yongsan and Gangnam, while the DP has more constituencies considered safe, with 23 in total.

In Gyeonggi, 34 of 59 constituencies are considered swing districts.

The DP has a noted advantage in Gyeonggi, with stronger support in 20 constituencies.

Eleven of these, including Suwon, have consistently voted for the DP for five consecutive elections, while nine have supported the DP in four elections.

In Incheon, nine of 13 constituencies are considered swing districts. The DP has secured four safe seats, including Gyeyang, where a DP candidate has won five times, and Namdong-eul and Bupyeong-eul, where the DP has claimed victory four times.

In contrast, the PPP lacks solid support in Incheon, with no safe seats identified.

Shift in party support In recent elections, Seoul voters have preferred the DP over the PPP.

The preference for the DP is even more pronounced in Gyeonggi.

Despite the PPP gaining support with issues like the New Town project in 2008, the DP has strengthened its political support in key constituencies, including those traditionally favoring the PPP, such as Bundang.

A member of the PPP told the JoongAng Sunday that a significant factor contributing to the party's challenges against the DP in the greater Seoul area is its struggle to appeal to moderates.

One problem has been internal power struggles, such as the conflict between then-President Park Geun-hye and party leader Kim Moo-sung during the 2016 general election, where disagreements surfaced over the selection of candidates.

Despite the party's success in fending off the DP’s landslide victory, securing 122 seats compared to the DP's 123, the president's party failed to achieve the triumph it was initially expected to enjoy.

A similar lack of leadership and organizational chaos unfolded within the party in 2020, marked by clashes between the party leader, Hwang Gyo-ahn, and the head of the party’s election selection panel, Kim Hyong-o.

Some seasoned politicians with solid constituency support were replaced with first-time politicians. Additionally, some candidates were swapped for other contenders shortly before the election, sowing confusion among voters.

The PPP has also suffered a lack of competitive candidates, notably as the DP garnered robust public support following the impeachment of President Park in 2018. Moreover, in recent years, the PPP's organizational strength in the greater Seoul area has weakened.

Jeong Han-wool, the head of the Korean People Research Institute, said the migration of younger people to Gyeonggi has strengthened the DP’s support.

“Many young people from provincial areas migrate to the greater Seoul area,” Jeong said. “But as they struggle to enter Seoul, they settle in Gyeonggi.”

In the 2004 election, Seoul had 7.75 million voters, while Gyeonggi had 7.31 million.

However, since then, Seoul added only 700,000 more voters, while Gyeonggi registered a significant increase of 3.74 million voters.

This demographic change has begun to impact election outcomes, particularly in constituencies that traditionally supported the PPP until 2004.

Areas like Hwaseong, Paju and Gimpo, which once favored the PPP, have started leaning toward their rival, the DP.

However, even areas traditionally considered safe seats for the DP showed signs of change in the last presidential and local government elections in 2022.

In the 2022 elections, President Yoon Suk Yeol beat his rival, DP chief Lee Jae-myung, by 4.83 percentage points in Seoul.

This marked a significant shift. It was the first time since the 2007 election, in which Lee Myung-bak won the presidency, that a PPP candidate gained more votes than a DP candidate.

However, President Yoon lost to Lee by 5.32 percentage points in Gyeonggi and 1.86 percentage points in Incheon.

In the local government election, which soon followed, the PPP claimed victory in Seoul and Incheon, while the DP secured Gyeonggi, including the governorship.

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Growing divergence There is a growing separation between voters in Seoul and Gyeonggi, a departure from when the two regions demonstrated similar levels of party support.

This political divergence began manifesting when Seoul residents in their 30s and 40s expressed frustration over the Moon Jae-in government's real estate policies.

This sentiment has been pivotal in hurting the DP in by-elections and other elections since 2020.

Analysts also attribute the political shift to demographic changes in Seoul, where the population is growing older. Between 2011 and 2021, the number of people in their 30s and 40s living in Seoul shrunk by approximately 610,000, while those 60 or older increased by 774,000 during the same period.

The migration of people in their 30s and 40s is speculated to have also impacted DP support in Gyeonggi.

While DP Kim Dong-yeon was elected as the province's governor, some political pundits argue that this was possible because Kim had not been regarded as a long-standing DP member, having joined the party only a few months earlier, appealing to moderate voters.

Despite recent elections indicating a shift in support in areas that traditionally backed the DP, the same voters could potentially turn against the PPP as in last year’s by-election, when the PPP lost control of the Gangseo district office, a position it had won the previous year.

A political consultant told the JoongAng Sunday that voters in Gangseo seemed to have reverted to their past preference for the DP.

The most significant factor seemed to have been changes in voter views on President Yoon.

Members of the National Election Commission’s Daejeon office practice the counting of votes on Jan. 31 for the upcoming general election in April. [YONHAP]

Competing for Gyeonggi votes However, a positive shift in sentiment within the party appears to be emerging since Han Dong-hoon, Yoon’s justice minister, assumed leadership in December.

Party members overseeing the greater Seoul area consistently warned the PPP leadership, led by Kim Gi-hyeon until November, that the party might face defeat to the DP unless necessary steps were taken.

They criticized the party for focusing on securing support in the Gyeongsang provinces, its home turf, and diverting attention from crucial battlegrounds.

An internal report, later disclosed by the Chosun Ilbo, indicated the party had assured victories in only six constituencies, two fewer than in the previous general election in 2020.

"Recent data shows a clear improvement in Seoul,” said a PPP official. “However, the data from Gyeonggi remains unfavorable."

Interim leader Han has intensified visits to major Gyeonggi cities, including Gimpo, Guri, Hanam and Goyang.

He has also made campaign pledges tailored to regional development, such as relocating rail tracks underground.

The DP is also actively working to consolidate its regional advantages, particularly when it faces the potential risk of losing votes to third parties composed of former DP members, including former party leader Lee Nak-yon.

In his New Year’s press conference last week, DP leader Lee Jae-myung emphasized that the coming election was the last opportunity to save the crumbling nation.

Lee also pledged to relocate rail tracks. In contrast to the PPP’s plan to relocate tracks only in areas that physically separate neighborhoods, Lee's promise extends to burying all tracks nationwide.

Gyeonggi governor Kim announced a massive infrastructure program on Friday, seemingly to prevent voters from flipping to the PPP as the conservative party pushes plans to incorporate some of the province's cities into Seoul.

BY KO JUNG-AE, CHOI MO-RAN AND LEE HO-JEONG [lee.hojeong@joonogang.co.kr]