Korea to thoroughly prepare for second Trump administration in the U.S.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump gives a fist bump to supporters ahead of the announcement of the results of the New Hampshire Republican primary in New Hampshire, U.S., January 23. Reuters

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has won the New Hampshire’s Republican primary following Iowa, consolidating his position as the party's front-runner despite various judicial obstacles from the beginning of the primary. While his only remaining competitor, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, has announced her intention to stay in the race, Trump is highly likely to be the Republican candidate for the presidential election on November 5. There's no telling if he will be the finalist or win the general election against President Joe Biden. However, his return to power has become a real possibility, so we cannot help but prepare for a big change which will occur if it actually happens.

Given the behavior of Trump during his presidency from 2017 to 2020, his rhetoric during his election campaign, and a more complex international situation than that of four to five years ago, his second term is likely to be more chaotic than the first. He has proposed a 10 percent universal tariff on all imports, reduced support for Ukraine and Taiwan, stronger support for Israel, higher costs imposed for allies, aggressive trade with adversaries, and a breakdown of international norms on climate and human rights. His return to power is certain to further strengthen the U.S.’ isolationist tendency, which has become evident in recent years.

It is impossible to simply predict the impact of a second Trump administration on South Korea. However, we can see that the impact on South Korea, which is more dependent on the US than any other country in the world, will be significant. Trump is likely to pressure South Korea to further increase its burden on alliance costs, such as those for maintaining U.S. troops in South Korea and deploying strategic assets. It could also affect the ongoing extended deterrence discussions between Seoul and Washington through the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG). He may also pursue direct dialogue with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, whom he met with three times, excluding South Korea. The U.S.-China conflict over global supply chains could intensify, making South Korea be in a pickle of choosing between the two. Each of these challenges is not easy at all.

Possible countermeasures for South Korea could be to speed up bilateral cooperation with the U.S. and to actively seek ways to disperse risks before Trump takes office. It seems that the Yoon Suk-yeol administration is leaning toward the former given that the government is rushing to start negotiations on sharing defense costs. However, it needs to be approached differently depending on the case. Although there are issues that will continue to be discussed step by step, such as extended deterrence discussions, it would be dangerous to rely on the one-sided diplomacy with the U.S. and Japan on all issues. To disperse risks, it is necessary to secure diplomatic space with China as much as possible and seek dialogue to reduce the possibility of military conflict with North Korea. To do so, it is imperative for diplomatic and security dialogue between the ruling and opposition parties, but it is worrisome that it is not easy to expect it from the current government.

※This article has undergone review by a professional translator after being translated by an AI translation tool.