Korea, China, Japan’s share of global population falls below 20% for first time

South Korea, China, and Japan, whose growth has been fueled by the world’s largest Chinese population and regional exchanges, are facing a growth crisis as population declines.

According to an analysis of United Nations population data by Maeil Business Newspaper and Professor Lee Kang-ho of KAIST Moon Soul Graduate School of Future Strategy on Sunday, the combined population of Korea, China, and Japan stood at 1.6 billion in 2023, accounting for 19.9 percent of the entire global population at 8.05 billion.

It is the first time that the 20 percent threshold has been breached since the UN began publishing relevant statistics in 1950.

The population share of the three countries remained stable between 1950 and 2000, averaging 25.4 percent per year, but has declined steeply since the mid-2000s.

The direct cause is the rapid spread of the low birthrate and aging population in China, following Korea and Japan.

China’s population share declined continuously from 21.8 percent in 1950 to 17. 7 percent in 2023.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the country’s total population shrank for two consecutive years to 1.41 billion in 2023, and the number of newborns fell below 10 million for the second time in history during the same period.

Until now, Korea and Japan have grown by utilizing China’s abundant labor and domestic market to establish production bases and consumer markets in the region. China has also increased its share of global trade by importing quality intermediate goods from Korea and Japan.

According to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and World Bank, the combined merchandise exports of Korea, China, and Japan were $5.02 trillion in 2022, accounting for 20.2 percent of global trade. The trilateral gross domestic product (GDP) also accounted for 23.5 percent of the world’s GDP.

Experts warn that the status of Korea, China, and Japan, which have been driving the global economy, is facing its greatest crisis due to the population shock.

“The three countries share the common problem of declining fertility rates, rising life expectancy, and a low proportion of foreign immigration,” Lee said. “The shock from the population decline is intensifying, making it urgent for the three countries to change their existing growth formula.”