Weathering the turbulent wave from the strait

The time has come for the government to devise an exquisite national strategy to turn a crisis into an
opportunity.

Sohn In-jooThe author is a professor at the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Seoul National University.

The results of the Jan. 13 presidential election in the Republic of China, or Taiwan, were as expected. The governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)’s candidate Lai Ching-te, 65, won an easy victory by winning 40.05 percent of the votes against his two rivals. Taiwanese voters elected their new leader in a democratic way without surrendering to China’s war threats or cyber operations. The president-elect steadfastly clung to the party epitomized by the anti-China and pro-independence movements throughout the campaign.

In 2017, Lai Ching-te branded himself as a “worker devoted to achieving independence for Taiwan.” But during this campaign, he promised to succeed outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen’s policy to maintain the status quo with China. But Beijing does not trust his words.

Taiwan Vice President and Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate Lai Ching-te, who also goes by William, attends a rally in southern Taiwan's Tainan city on Friday, Jan. 12, 2024 ahead of the presidential election on Saturday. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

The governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)’s candidate Lai Ching-te, 65, waves to his supporters after winning the presidential election in Taiwan, Jan. 13. [AP/YONHAP]

From China’s perspective, Lai is a more hard-line separatist than Tsai. U.S. President Joe Biden seems to feel unease about his election victory. Biden’s concerns originate from Lai’s last TV debate in which he said the current Constitution of the Republic of China gets in the way of Taiwan’s independence, as it defines both the island and the mainland as “Taiwan’s territories.” If Taiwan pushes for a constitutional amendment to separate it from China, Taipei crosses a red line that Beijing had set. Since the San Francisco summit in November, the United States and China have opened one communication channel after another to put their relations back on track. Over the volatile Taiwan issue, Chinese President Xi Jinping is uncompromising over the top.

While staying in Taiwan until recently, I met several experts on China-Taiwan relations. They projected a further deterioration of their bilateral relations after the election in Taiwan. Lu Yeh-chung, a professor of diplomacy at National Chengchi University, said that moderate voices have nearly disappeared in mainland China since 2019. Christina Lai, an associate research fellow in the Institute of Political Science at Academia Sinica, warned about the growing possibility in China of “deceiving both yourself and others,” referring to the risk of unconditional allegiance to the supreme leader in officialdom as well as academia.

After independence-cherishing DPP’s remarkable success in taking power for three consecutive terms, or 12 years, China will likely reinforce its military pressure, not just trade restrictions, on Taiwan. If Lai reaffirms his position — that Taiwan is already an independent state with sovereignty — in his inauguration as the 16th president of Taiwan on May 20, he will certainly be on a collision course with Xi who vowed to use armed forces to unify Taiwan. The U.S. still supports Ukraine and Israel in their war against Hamas and Russia. If China concludes that the United States cannot intervene in another conflict on top of the two ongoing wars, China will likely invade Taiwan. In 1950, when America’s military power was much stronger than China’s, Chairman Mao decided to intervene in the Korean War. Even amid the chaos at the end of the Great Leap Forward in 1962, China dared to invade India over their territorial disputes. If you cling to the naïve belief that China will want to maintain the status quo for fear of the mighty U.S. deterrence, it could result in critical consequences.

The future of Taiwan, including unification, should be determined by the Taiwanese based on the principle of self-determination. But considering China’s power, it could be desirable for Taiwan to determine its future through negotiations with China. The Taiwan issue has transformed into a global issue. Korea’s national interests are also at stake here. If Taiwan’s free democracy and the world’s market economy are overturned by force, the world order will inevitably shake, which in turn will deal a critical blow to Korea’s prosperity and security.

Bloomberg predicts that if a war breaks out in the strait, global GDP will shrink by 10 percent, or approximately $10 trillion. In that case, the Korean economy — whose reliance on trade accounts for 75 percent of its GDP, the second biggest share in the world — will suffer big losses from the painful rebuilding of global supply chains. 43 percent of Korea’s trade volumes currently pass through the strait — and 99 percent of its all imports and exports rely on maritime transportation.

The worst scenario is when China attacks the main island or starts an all-out war against Taiwan. In that case, not only the Chinese military forces positioned in the eastern zone of the People’s Liberation Army, but also its military forces in the northern zone will be mobilized. If so, we cannot rule out the possibility of U.S. and allied forces clashing with the Chinese forces. The developments could expand to all three waters surrounding South Korea — already under nuclear missile threats from North Korea — and change the waters into battle zones between the U.S. and China. With regard to the Taiwan issue, South Korea must play its role as a responsible member of the international society, as nuanced by President Yoon Suk Yeol’s opposition last May to “changing the status quo over Taiwan by force.” Seoul needs to make public a carefully choreographed position on the issue to help ensure peace and stability of the strait. To achieve this goal, the government must pursue deterrence and assurance at the same time.

To deter China from blockading the strait or waging war on Taiwan, Korea must oppose “changing the status quo by force” together with its allies. Taipei must also maintain its defensive military capabilities against Beijing. Taiwan’s economic prosperity is a precondition for its defense capability. Therefore, the rest of the world must support free trade, including Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy initiated by outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen to shift away from its overreliance on China by increasing trade with other regional partners. If the economy declines, Taiwan’s power to control China cannot but weaken.

But at the same time, Korea must help ease China’s anxiety. In other words, Seoul must also oppose “Taipei trying to change the status quo by achieving independence.” For instance, we must raise concerns about Taiwan’s possible steps for independence, such as changing the name of the country or abandoning its national anthem. We also must persuade China to accept the other option of “changing the status quo by negotiation” and ensure a peaceful unification.

We have convincing historical experiences — and cause — to profess our position on the Taiwan issue. After China sided with North Korea and invaded South Korea, we suffered massive losses during the Korean War. We have the high moral ground on the issue over China to warn against any greedy attempt to unify Taiwan.

On the other hand, we — as a neighbor who experienced both industrialization and democracy — can advise Taiwan to maintain the current status at least for a while. As Koreans share the grief from division — and such essential values as democracy and market economy — with the Taiwanese, we can communicate with them on an equal basis. Former two-term Taiwanese president Ma Ying-jeou from the Nationalist Party said in a press interview that the best way for foreign governments to help Taiwan is to encourage it to avoid war with the mainland through peace negotiations. Huang Min-hua, a professor at National Taiwan University, worried that the past two-track dialogue, where both the civilian and government experts participated, have nearly ended.

He raised the need for a third country to provide a venue for dialogue between the two sides at a reliable civilian organization, as the meeting cannot be held in the mainland. South Korea also can serve as the venue. After its emergence as a “global pivotal state” from its heightened international stature, Korea can help put the peace and prosperity of the world back on track and beyond. The time has come for the government to devise an exquisite national strategy to turn a crisis into an opportunity. Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.