Kim Ju-ae being groomed to lead a brutal regime

It was her misfortune to be born into the Kim dynasty and for our own protection we must not lose sight of what that means for the North Korean people and the world.

Michael GreenThe author is CEO of the U.S. Studies Centre at the University of Sydney and Henry A. Kissinger Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

The National Intelligence Service’s determination that Kim Jong-un’s daughter Kim Ju-ae would be his successor has prompted an understandable wave of interest in what this young girl is really like. Some may even see in her cute demeanor similarities to a favorite student or niece. The reality is that we can only know about Kim Ju-ae what the Pyongyang wants us to know. Nevertheless, the way she is being introduced to the world tells us everything we do need to know about the brutal and dangerous nature of this regime.

Kim Ju-ae established her high profile after first appearing in public in June 2022. Her rhetorical elevation from “beloved” daughter to “respected” daughter is a clear sign of her growing aura of authority. While she may seem young, she is appearing in public at about the same age her father did when he was being prepared to succeed Kim Jong Il. And the debut has other similarities.

Kim Jong-un appears to also have a son, but he has clearly anointed his daughter as successor. This is not unprecedented since Kim himself passed over his older brother Kim Jung-chul to succeed his father as regime leader. That precedent should tell us something about Kim Ju-ae. Kim Jong-chul was reported to be soft while Kim Jong Il’s sushi chef, Kenji Fujimoto, described Kim Jong-un as having a vicious demeanor as a small child. Kim Ju-ae was likely groomed for succession because she shares a similar potential for ruthlessness and not just because she is “beloved” or adorable. Remember that Kim Jong-un was reportedly given nominal command over the Korean Peoples Army forces that conducted the lethal artillery attacks on South Korean civilians in outlying islands in the West Sea in 2010. Kim Ju-ae is already being closely associated with the regime’s most dangerous weapons. She accompanied her father for the launching of the Malligyong-1 satellite and then stood by his side for the launch of the Hwasong-18 solid-fuel ICBM and Kim’s statement that North Korea will never abandon nuclear weapons.

Kim Ju-ae’s charge as heir will be to ensure that legacy and the credibility of the Kim family’s readiness for violence. It is possible that in patriarchal North Korea this subtext of terror and violence is all the more important for a female heir, but the transition would probably look similar if one of Kim Jong-un’s reported sons were to take over. It would not be surprising if Kim Ju-ae were given an opportunity for blood-letting at some point just as her father presided over the attacks in the West Sea. That readiness for violence is clearly a necessary leadership attribute in North Korea.

Kim Ju-ae, daughter of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, accompanies her father to his inspection of a major facility of the North’s air force at the end of November 2023. [KOREAN CENTRAL TELEVISION]

There is some speculation in the media that Kim Ju-ae was only rolled out with the Hwasong-18 and Malligyong-1 to increase international attention to those capabilities because she brought a bit of star power for the world media. That is possible, but I have long been skeptical of arguments that Pyongyang’s primary motivation for anything is international attention. Asserting that Pyongyang takes provocative actions primarily for international attention is another way of portraying the regime as a spoiled child that needs to either be ignored (an excuse for inaction on the North Korea problem) or reassured (an excuse for making concessions). Yes, the regime wants to shock and awe its adversaries –but that propaganda is a byproduct of developing the deterrence and regime credibility that comes with WMD capable of striking the United States, Japan, and South Korea. So I come back to the conclusion that Kim Ju-ae’s elevation is primarily about signaling her capacity to inherit Kim Jong-un’s worldclass capacity for cruelty, violence, and blackmail. There is no other way for this family to rule the North.

This also explains why the Kim family has managed to become the world’s longest-lasting Communist dynasty. Stalin’s son was promoted during the Second World War but eventually became a powerless alcoholic while Mao Tse-tung’s son was hit by American airpower when he foolishly tried to cook fried rice at night during the Korean War. Neither dictator tried to find another heir. Their cult of personality was highly individualized and not familial. So how has the Kim family moved successfully towards a fourth-generation direct heir of Kim Il Sung?

The Soviet and Chinese precedents suggest that the answer lies not in our understanding of Stalinist cults of personality alone, even if that tool has been one element behind the Kim family’s durability. Nor does the answer lie in the example of ancient monarchies in Asia or Europe, where divine providence conveyed from one generation to the next but only with the backing of nobles who were invested in the regime and shaped the dynastic outcomes to fit their interests. North Korean “nobles” are a rotating cast that can be purged at any time and have not demonstrated collective action since the 1960s at least.

The comparison that is most apt would-be crime families like the mafia. Beneath the trappings of socialism and dynastic propaganda, the key lesson is that the Kim family has groomed successors to control the organization’s tools of violence — just like the mafia. The most violent mafia bosses raise their successors to be terrifying purveyors of violence. They hand them pistols so they can personally eliminate traitors in front of the other gang members. They often help them cultivate an almost sadistic and therefore unpredictable and terrorizing penchant for violence.

This was precisely what we saw with Saddam Hussein’s two sons Uday and Qusay, who were notorious for their orgies of violence before U.S. and coalition forces took them out during the Iraq War. Without Saddam’s own demise, one of them would likely have succeeded him to continue the world’s only other sadistic dynastic succession. We have no evidence that Kim Ju-ae has engaged in any acts of violence comparable to the Hussein boys or Kim Jong-un, of course — or that she will (((((?????))))) — but the trajectory she is on has precedents with her own father that are disturbing. Suffice it to say that she is not being raised to be a reformer in the mold of Gorbachev or Deng Xiaoping.

This is not pleasant speculation about a seemingly charming young women who in a different context might be enjoying a normal childhood shaped by an education in the norms of decency, love, and mutual respect. But it was her misfortune to be born into the Kim dynasty and for our own protection we must not lose sight of what that means for the North Korean people and the world.