When will spring come to China’s economy?

The Ministry of State Security, a counterintelligence agency, threatened that talking about “economic crisis” could be subject to punishment.

KIM DO-BONGThe author is a Beijing correspondent for JTBC. China’s Harbin was a “winter kingdom” 12 years ago. I encountered a temperature of minus 40 degrees Celsius (minus 40 degrees Fahrenheit) for the first time in my life. It was minus 28 degrees Celsius even in the middle of the day. Whenever I inhaled, it felt as if the cold was freezing my lungs.

I could not dare to go out without wearing layers of clothes and socks. It was hard to walk on the cold stone with regular shoes. Everyone in Harbin was wearing sportswear. Later, I learned that they had to wear thick underwear resembling diving gear.

I thought about the city because of the recent “Harbin boom.” Around this time of year, Harbin turns into an ice city. Along the Zhongyang Street, known for its Russian-style structures, snow and ice sculptures line up nearly 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) from the entrance.

The highlight is the Ice and Snow World festival, which has been held since 1999. According to the People’s Daily Online, 13,000 cubic meters of snow and ice were dumped on 810,000 square meters (200 acres) of land this year, the largest amount ever. Around 1,000 ice buildings and sculptures are exhibited around the 16-story main tower.

According to the Harbin bureau of culture and tourism, more than 3 million tourists visited the ice kingdom during the three-day New Years holiday. Tourism revenue amounts to 1.83 trillion won ($823.6 million), an all-time high.

State media praised Harbin as an exemplary case of boosting domestic consumption and economic recovery. The People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the Communist Party of China, reported that Harbin was gaining international popularity, while state broadcaster CCTV forecast that the Harbin boom would continue through the Lunar New Year holiday.

However, praising Harbin leaves behind a bitter taste because of the dark shadow looming over China’s economy. Last year, China already had the worst year ever. The real estate crisis, high youth unemployment, and sluggish domestic consumption hit the country all at once.

The outlook for this year is also grim. The Bank of Korea estimated China’s economic growth for 2024 to be in the mid-4 percent range, lower than last year’s. In his New Year’s speech, President Xi Jinping made an unprecedented acknowledgement of economic trouble and said the economy must recover.

Still, there are no harsh comments on China’s economy. Editorials calling for a change of direction and articles criticizing the problems were deleted shortly afterwards. The Central Economic Work Conference, which sets goals for economic growth and directions for state administration, ordered, “Sing the bright future theory.” The Ministry of State Security, a counterintelligence agency, threatened that talking about “economic crisis” could be subject to punishment.

The winter kingdom will melt away when spring winds blow and frogs wake up from hibernation. When the hard ice breaks, sprouts will grow. When will spring come to China’s economy?