Early staging of tripartite summit holds the key

Diplomacy is about timing. I hope that the Year of the Blue Dragon will be a special year to restore Korea-China relations.

YOU SANG-CHULThe author is the CEO of China Lab. Could the stalled Korea-China relations fly this year? Let’s look at the external conditions first. U.S.-China relations stabilized after the summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping in November. They are in a ceasefire until November, as the United States will focus on the presidential election and China will go all-in on the economy.

China-Japan relations are not bad, either. Tokyo’s efforts to improve relations with Beijing since June are considered to be effective. Xi can now afford to take care of the neighbors, as seen in his visit to Vietnam last month.

Holding summits between Korea and China through mutual visits to each country would serve as the symbol of their restoration if they were to happen. To make them happen, the atmosphere has to be created. The Korea-China-Japan summit to be held this year in Korea is considered something that can be a catalyst to create such environments.

For the tripartite summit, the premier represents China. The restoration of the Korea-China relations in the new year depends on how soon the summit takes place. Korea wants the trilateral summit to take place as soon as possible.

Seoul hopes it will be held as early as February or within March at the latest, which is shortly after the Two Sessions, China’s biggest annual political event. As Korea’s general election is scheduled in April, President Yoon Suk Yeol wants to show the three leaders holding hands and smiling to the people. Only then can he pursue a bilateral summit with Xi in November, a strategic break in the U.S.-China rivalry. It would be ideal for Xi to visit Korea, but for Korea’s national interests, Yoon may visit China first.

However, China is reportedly planning Xi’s visit to Korea in time for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Korea in 2025. Therefore, China is not desperate for the three-way summit. China has no reason to keep up with Korea’s pace when Seoul is getting on Beijing’s nerves by mentioning the volatile Taiwan issue. The problem is that if the trilateral summit is postponed after the April election, Korea may lose momentum to improve ties with China.

If Xi’s trip to Seoul takes place in time for the 2025 APEC summit, it cannot serve as a good opportunity for Korea to restore its relations with China, as it takes place in the later part of Yoon’s presidency. In this case, the bilateral relations will continue to be sluggish — and both countries will suffer the damage.

This is not what either side wants. I hope the tripartite summit will be held soon. The summit will be possible anytime if the leaders of the three countries are willing. As the saying goes, “Row when the water is high.” Diplomacy is about timing. I hope that the Year of the Blue Dragon will be a special year to restore Korea-China relations.