Population forecast to drop below 50 million by 2033

[Image source: Gettyimagesbank]

South Korea’s population, which is declining at the fastest rate in the world, will drop below the 50 million mark in 2033 if the current situation continues. Even if the birth rate gradually recovers, the population will sink below 50 million by 2041.

According to future population estimates released by Statistics Korea on Thursday, the country’s total population will decline from 51.67 million in 2022 to 36.22 million in 2072, or a decrease of 15.45 million, 1.27 million more than the forecast from two years ago.

The economically active population (ages 15-64), the main source of economic activity, is also expected to decline from 36.74 million to 16.85 million within 50 years, even under the assumption that the total fertility rate, or the number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime, improves and tops 1.0 after 2036. If the fertility rate remains the same at 0.7, the total population will plummet by 21.5 million to 30.17 million within 50 years, according to Statistics Korea.

Experts emphasize the need to focus policy efforts on raising the birth rate. “The main reason for the low birthrate is the financial burden on parents,” Nam Chan-seop, a professor of social welfare at Dong-A University, said. “We must ensure that pregnant women are not excluded from the labor market and recognize various marriage systems, including common-law marriage.”

The speed at which the population falls below the 50 million mark is heavily dependent on the birth rate. In the median estimate, the population is expected to dip below 50 million in 2041, but in the lower estimate, this occurs as early as 2033, or a decade onwards. But in an optimistic scenario where the birth rate is double the current rate at1.34 births, the date at which the population falls below the 50 million mark will be prolonged to 2054.