A long way to go, Mr. Chairman

Considering the North’s technological and economic situation, the outcome of the space race already seems to be decided.

Kim Yeol-suThe author is the head of security strategy team of the Korea Institute for Military Affairs. Kim Jong-un must be grinning from ear to ear. Launch vehicle Chollima-1, carrying satellite Malligyong-1, took off successfully after two failed attempts. The North decided to secure a military reconnaissance satellite at the Eighth Congress of the Workers’ Party in January 2021. A test satellite was launched the following December.

When Kim visited the National Aerospace Development Administration in March, he ordered his subordinates to collect information on the South Korean military, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces, and the U.S. military in the Pacific. He also ordered the deployment of “a large number of military reconnaissance satellites in the sun-synchronous orbit within five years.”

The launch date was finally set. But the first launch in May failed, as did another in August. While North Korea meant to try again in October, the effort was delayed after Kim Jong-un met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in September. Putin promised to help Kim develop the satellite. It seems that a few Russian scientists have since traveled to North Korea and given technical advice.

North Korea successfully launched the reconnaissance satellite into orbit on December 21. Malligyong-1, the military reconnaissance satellite, orbits the earth about 15 times a day at an altitude of 500 kilometers (311 miles). It takes 94.7 minutes to make one orbit. It passes over the Korean Peninsula two to three times a day.

North Korea has repeatedly mentioned that Malligyong-1 captured images of military bases in the United States and South Korea, but those photos have not been released yet. Pyongyang must fear the evaluation of the images’ military value. The South Korean Navy collected the propellants and payloads from the first failed launch, and the Agency for Defense Development analyzed them. As the resolution of the surveillance camera exceeded 3 meters (10 feet), it was considered to have no military value.

South Korea also launched its first military reconnaissance satellite on Dec. 2. It used a Falcon-9 launch vehicle from the Vanderberg Space Force Base in California. It entered the same sun-synchronous orbit as North Korea’s Malligyong-1, and the frequency with which it passes over the Korean Peninsula is similar. The decisive difference is that the North’s Malligyong-1 has a resolution of 3 meters, while South Korea’s resolution is 30 centimeters (12 inches). The difference in resolutions is about 100 times.

South Korea plans to secure five spy satellites by 2025 under the “April 25 Project.” The launched reconnaissance satellite captures images with electro-optical and infrared equipment. But the new satellites will be equipped with high-performance synthetic aperture radar technology that can take pictures in all weather conditions. Once operated, five 800-kilogram (1,763-pound) spy satellites can capture images in North Korea every two hours.

However, as a moving target will not stay still for two hours, 30 more small satellites will be launched by 2030 to cover blind spots. The satellites will acquire strategic information about North Korea in 30 minutes or less. The South will not only gain stronger deterrence against the North, but also will be prepared for massive retaliation with Kill Chain in case of emergency. South Korea has already succeeded in launching a small satellite weighing 100 kilograms and carrying an SAR into orbit using a solid fuel propellant in waters off of Jeju on Dec. 4.

North Korea has also pledged to launch more Malligyong satellites. But it will take time for them to be on par with their South Korean counterparts. South Korea has launched various satellites over the past 30 years, including those for weather, science and telecommunication as well as multipurpose satellites. In the meantime, the South has accumulated various technologies that the North has not.

Another obstacle is economic power. The budget for the April 25 Project is 1.33 trillion won ($1 billion). The budget for the 30 small satellites to be launched by 2030 will be 1.42 trillion won. The North’s reconnaissance satellite launch plan is similar to South Korea’s. But it will be not easy to launch so many more, even if it tightens its belt.

A space race has begun, as South and North Korea almost simultaneously launched spy satellites. However, considering the North’s technological and economic situation, the outcome of the space race already seems to be decided. Perhaps it would be faster for the North to collapse with all its nuclear weapons, missiles and spy satellites. Kim Jong-un may be disappointed when he faces that harsh reality.

Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.