U.S. presidential election to pose biggest geopolitical risk next year: Experts

[Photo by AFP / Yonhap]

The U.S. presidential election scheduled for next year is the single most important factor that will shape the global geopolitical landscape in the coming years, according to global experts on Wednesday.

“The next 10 years will see the construction of a new world order, depending on how stakeholders act,” said former South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se during an international conference inorganized by the NEAR Foundation, a local privately-funded independent think-tank, and the Korea Foundation, a non-profit public diplomacy organization, in Seoul.

Yun particularly pointed out the significant influence of politics on the foreign and security strategies of major countries.

“Due diligence is necessary in preparation for the potential geopolitical shocks that could vary greatly depending on the results of the upcoming U.S. presidential election,” he said.

Yun also mentioned that elections such as Taiwan’s presidential election and Korea’s general election, which precede the U.S. election, could also impact the world order.

Ivo Daalder, former U.S. ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and current president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, raised concerns about the decline in U.S. leadership, while noting that its relations with allied countries have strengthened.

Daalder noted that whether the United States will continue to prioritize relations with allied countries depends on the results of next year’s presidential election.

The outcome could change the role of the U.S., and there is a risk that the U.S. may overturn the current world order it has created, Daalder said.

Kim Sung-han, professor of international relations at the Graduate School of International Studies at Korea University who served as the first national security adviser under the Yoon Suk Yeol administration, raised the possibility of a small multilateral system led by the U.S. and China.

“If that happens, it could lead to a stable competitive relationship between the two countries,” he said.

In his congratulatory remarks, Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin said: “To ensure that changes in the international community develop in a direction favorable to universal values such as freedom, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law, the role of advanced democratic nations must be strengthened.”

Park noted that the Group of Seven (G7) countries seek the support and participation of countries that have achieved democracy and advanced economies, such as Korea and Australia.