North may conduct satellite launch by end of month, says South's defense chief

Speaking in an interview with KBS, Defense Minister Shin Won-sik said the North’s launch could occur before South Korea launches its first domestically developed reconnaissance satellite on Nov. 30.

South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik, center, speaks during the 55th South Korea-U.S. Security Consultative Meeting with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin at the Defense Ministry in Yongsan District, central Seoul, on Nov. 13. [MINISTRY OF NATIONAL DEFENSE]

North Korea may conduct its third attempt to launch a military spy satellite into orbit before the end of the month, South Korea’s defense minister said Sunday.

Speaking in an interview with KBS, Defense Minister Shin Won-sik said the North’s launch could occur before South Korea launches its first domestically developed reconnaissance satellite on Nov. 30.

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is due to deliver the South Korean satellite into orbit from Vandenberg Air Force Vandenberg Space Force Base in California on Nov. 30.

Noting that South Korea and the United States are “monitoring North Korea’s movements,” Shin said that North Korea’s preparations “are underway for a launch to take place within a week.”

“It takes approximately a week to move the engine from the test site to Tongchang-ri, assemble the launchpad and inject the liquid fuel,” Shin said, referring to the North Korean satellite launching station in North Pyongan Province.

South Korea’s National Intelligence Service told lawmakers earlier this month that the North is in the final stage of preparations to conduct a spy satellite launch, which the regime previously said it would do in October.

The defense minister said the North is believed to have “almost resolved” its engine problems “with Russian assistance.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his intentions to help develop North Korea's satellite program at a rare summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at a spaceport in Russia’s Far East in September.

Putin told media at the summit that Kim shows great interest in rocket technology, noting that North Korea is also developing an “excellent” space program.

The North conducted two failed attempts to launch a reconnaissance satellite into orbit in May and August.

Shin noted that a successful satellite launch by the North would indicate significant advances in its rocket technology, which could also be applied to other weapons, including missiles.

Under successive United Nations Security Council resolutions, the North is banned from conducting launches involving the use of ballistic missile technology.

“The United States is also watching closely because reconnaissance satellites have the potential to dramatically advance North Korea’s surveillance capabilities and even out our current advantage,” Shin added.

South Korea has long relied on U.S. high-resolution satellites for intelligence, but Seoul’s current satellite program is aimed at launching up to to five orbital probes that would allow the South Korean military to conduct its own satellite reconnaissance.

Shin’s remarks came a day after the North’s recently designated “Missile Industry Day,” which marks the anniversary of its successful launch of the Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile on Nov. 18 last year.

Government sources told local media last week that South Korea could partially suspend a 2018 inter-Korean military agreement should the North conduct a third attempt to launch a spy satellite.

The defense minister has also repeatedly called for suspending the inter-Korean agreement since taking office last month.

In his remarks during a parliamentary audit session on Oct. 27, Shin said the North has explicitly violated the agreement 110 times in the past five years by firing artillery shells in the western maritime buffer zone.

He noted that the estimated number of the North's violations is closer to 3,600 since the agreement was signed.

BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]