Actions speak louder than words
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South Korea and the United States have revised the Tailored Deterrence Strategy (TDS) after a decade. In the 55th Security Consultative Meeting held in Seoul on Monday, Defense Minister Shin Won-sik and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin approved the revisions to the TDS aimed at jointly coping with North Korea’s mounting nuclear and missile threats. Though the details of the revision were not disclosed, the Ministry of National Defense said the revision reflected the requirements for all military capabilities, including U.S. nuclear weapons, to brace for all possible scenarios of North Korea using weapons of mass destruction against South Korea.
The revision not only reflected the North’s advanced nuclear capabilities over the past 10 years but it can also ease the South’s security concerns about the omission of U.S. nuclear counterattacks in the Washington Declaration in case North Korea launched a nuclear attack on South Korea. As the revision stipulated South Korea’s conventional weapons support for U.S. nuclear operations — in other words, a joint military operation against the North’s nuclear attack — it signifies a step forward from the South’s passive reliance on the nuclear umbrella.
After the meeting, the two defense ministers issued a 12,000-word joint statement covering 23 areas of military cooperation. They also signed a separate defense vision aimed at preparing for the centennial of the Korea-U.S. alliance in 2053. The vision seeks to augment nuclear deterrence, extend the alliance to science and technology in the military fields, and expand the size and scope of the alliance to a comprehensive — and global — strategy alliance. If the agreements can be put in action as they are, it will certainly consolidate the seven-decade alliance even further. In another significant development, the two ministers simultaneously warned that if North Korean leader Kim Jong-un uses nuclear weapons, it will be the end of his regime.
But actions speak louder than words. Defense Minister Shin said he would complement the agreements by carrying them out in operational levels. The U.S. defense secretary assured of the policy continuation through the next administration.
But South Korea must prepare for a possible change in the U.S. government after the presidential election next year and for a possible rapprochement between Washington and Pyongyang, as in 2018. The United States’ reaffirmation of the nuclear umbrella translates into the demand that South Korea should not develop nukes on its own. That raises a question: Would Uncle Sam rush to defend its ally when New York is under a nuclear attack? We hope the latest revision proves effective in defending South Korea.
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