[AI IN ACTION] Can AI rescue Korea's aging society from the abyss?

Can AI save Korea from extinction? It’s an extreme question, but one that some economists and policymakers are grappling with in a high-tech country with the fastest aging population and the lowest birthrate in the world...

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Can AI save Korea from extinction?

It’s an extreme question, but one that some economists and policymakers are grappling with in a high-tech country with the fastest aging population and the lowest birthrate in the world.

“Historically, technology has ultimately led to improved productivity, income and job growth,” said Koh Young-sun, chief economist at the Korea Development Institute. “I don’t see why AI should be any different.”

Korea and some 20 other countries, including Italy, Japan and Thailand, face an existential question today of dropping fertility rates, an index often directly associated with a country’s economy and security.

These countries are expected to lose half of their current populations by the end of the century should the demographic trends continue, said a group of researchers at Washington University.

Korea might be first in the race toward demographic doom, as its total fertility rate, or the average number of births per woman during her reproductive years, has shown no signs of recovering since 2006. Korea has been breaking its own record annually in recent years, with the fertility rate falling to 0.78 last year.

After some 280 trillion won ($212 billion) explicitly spent to boost the birthrate for nearly 20 years yielded no visible outcome, some policymakers have asked whether AI, the ability of a computer or computer-controlled robot to perform tasks usually associated with humans, might prove a godsend to boost productivity in a nation with a dwindling workforce.

Can Korea turn the tide on its shrinking labor force by riding the AI wave?

The Korea JoongAng Daily spoke with economists and AI specialists who have been asking the same question.

Labor shortages and automation Citing the fertility crisis, economists project a severe labor shortage in Korea within the next few years.

Korea Economic Research Institute, a think tank based in Seoul, projected that the population fueling Korea’s economy — those between 25 and 54 — would drop from being the second strongest among the OECD nations to one of the smallest by 2050.

On the other hand, Korea’s elderly population — those over 65 — is projected to comprise 40 percent of the population by 2050. It has grown 4.2 percent annually in the past decade, double the rate of Japan, which is also one of the world's fastest-aging societies.

Some researchers have referred to AI as a possible solution to keep afloat the 13th largest economy in the world.

The Korean Chamber of Commerce and Industry said using AI to produce goods and services will bring $476.3 billion more into the economy, nearly a third of the country’s GDP in 2022.

“AI utilized in manufacturing will definitely help the country’s export competitiveness,” Koh said.

Korea’s manufacturing industry, the driver of its economy, is already one of the most automated in the world.

The industry ensures access to a robot for every 10 employees, according to World Robotics in 2022. The ratio was significantly higher than that of neighbors Singapore, Japan and China, as well as that of Germany and the United States.

Though incorporating robots does not necessarily mean an industry utilizes AI, it still promises the foundation upon which AI can be used, as robots are often compared to the human body and AI the brain.

Some leading conglomerates have already started applying AI to their factories, creating a “smart factory system.” Posco, the first in the manufacturing sector in Korea to use AI in its factories in 2017, gained the World Economic Forum’s recognition for its smart factory in 2020.

“The impact the implementation of AI will have on the Korean workforce and its output must be assessed over time,” Koh said. “As has been the case with previous technological transformations of work, it takes time for humanity to adapt to these changes mentally, and also for their skills and hardware to be upgraded.”

Automation or augmentation? If Korea actively pursues an AI-aided economy, further questions arise on how much automation of human work the Korean workforce is ready to accept.

For instance, a more comprehensive application of self-driving vehicles to the taxi industry could put many elderly people out of work.

In Korea, four out of 10 taxi drivers are over 65, according to the Road Traffic Authority.

“As is the case with most technological developments, the employees whose tasks are centered on repetition will be first out of the job market,” said Koh.

Taxis outside of Seoul Station on Nov. 2. [YONHAP]

This also includes delivery jobs, which got a huge boost during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Data processing jobs may also be on the chopping block.

Choi Byeong-ho, an AI expert at Korea University, said there is already visible augmentation of human work, especially in data analysis and compartmentalization.

“Typically, the tasks that artificial intelligence does well are those that humans are not good at, including classification,” Choi said. “For example, if you run a shopping mall, there are so many products in the mall that it’s not easy to classify them. Many such tasks will likely be automated, increasing productivity.”

While there has been government-level attention on keeping human interests at the heart of AI development, such as the guidelines on AI development released by the Ministry of Science and ICT in 2019, a more bottom-up approach of collecting the general public's opinions about the technology has been missing, according to some experts.

“What kind of AI-automated society do I want to live in? These are the types of questions that people have been asking in Germany, for instance,” said Choi.

Some of these discussions would address details like ensuring humans are at the center of operating a smart factory's automated conveyor belt system.

“Complete automation of a task would take humans out of the equation and therefore save costs,” said Choi. “But is that what people want? Asking these questions would put humans and their values before the importance of maximizing profits.”

Unfortunately, such discussions are hard to come by in Korea today, he said.

“AI will put some people out of work, as have most technological advancements,” Koh said. “Older people who cannot be trained to learn new skills will inevitably suffer. This is where welfare programs must come in to ensure equal life opportunities for all.”

Factory 56 of Mercedes-Benz [MERCEDES-BENZ]

AI for humanity?

Although they may not be on a nationwide or global scale, some tech companies have begun to develop AI products specifically targeting loopholes in the current welfare system — especially in the care for the elderly.

According to recent research at Seoul National University, the population of the country 65 or above will take up an increasingly larger share of society. Within a few decades, every young adult will be expected to produce enough to sustain the welfare of at least one elderly individual. Currently, three young adults support the welfare of an elderly citizen.

Today's elderly also receive insufficient care.

Some 1.9 million people 65 or over were living alone last year, accounting for more than 20 percent of the elderly population in the country, according to the Health Ministry.

Elderly people living alone are prone to depression and loneliness.

Wonderful Robot is one of the many companies that has developed a “caring robot” for the elderly. Its robot, Dasom, can communicate and notify people when to take medicine. It also plays different sorts of music and videos for entertainment upon request.

The district office of Dobong in northern Seoul began providing the service to 40 elderly people in April.

Members of the elderly population play Korean chess outside of Tapgol Park in Seoul on March 3, 2021. [NEWS1]

The robot’s emergency response function allows people to verbally request help, immediately connecting them to their guardians or related facilities.

“Amid the increasing number of elderly people living alone, we will introduce smart technologies that allow mutual interaction. This aims to minimize the gaps in care for the elderly and establish a more comprehensive safety net,” said Oh Eon-seok, the head of the district office.

A common AI technology geared toward the elderly is AI-enabled speakers. The mobile carrier SKT’s speaker based on the Nugu AI platform is one of them, provided to some 17,000 people needing care.

“My daughter gifted me the speaker last year, and it has become a routine for me to ask the weather to the speaker every morning,” a 74-year-old living alone in southern Seoul for over a decade told the Korea JoongAng Daily.

“I frequently ask about something that I want to know more of or things that I don’t understand while watching TV shows, like some difficult terms or who the celebrity on the show is.”

“But my questions need to be very specific, or it will not give me the answer I want.”

Apart from these technologies replacing human friends, the urgent SOS service implemented in SKT’s speaker has saved many elderly lives, according to the mobile carrier.

Some 6,000 urgent calls were filed to the service from April 2019, when the system was first implemented, to May this year. Of the 6,000 calls, 500 were referred to the 119 emergency hotline, in which 52 percent of them were associated with urgent symptoms such as hemorrhages.

Questions on the suitability of AI in the services sector, which generally requires a more emotional and empathetic response from the service giver, have been addressed with some examples of AI products in child care recently.

An AI-equipped robot was recently able to pick up signs that a child suffered abuse at home.

The robot, Joanne, visits elementary schools and converses with students. When a child comments such as, “My family hit me,” the psychiatrist in charge can pick up on them and follow through with the school and police.

However, the use of AI for human welfare has primarily been driven voluntarily by the private sector.

“Some companies and organizations are taking the initiative to use AI to provide public goods, which is a positive movement and a sustainable one given that it has been organically generated,” Choi said. “But the organic and voluntary nature also means the initiatives tend to be rather limited because they are doing all the fund-raising themselves.”

The Korean government has allotted some 1.2 trillion won next year for the development of AI, a 15.8 percent on-year increase, pledging to support more corporate development of AI solutions for the general benefit of society.

The pledge, however, pales when juxtaposed with the recent budget cut on research and development, considered the foundation for AI-related research.

“Behind the words should be action, and that includes the law, budget and deployment of human resources,” said Choi, referring to a recent decision by the administration to cut the budget for R&D by 5 trillion won next year. “The cut in the budget is, unfortunately, being read as a lack of willpower by the government to be at the forefront of policymaking on AI.”

BY ESTHER CHUNG, CHO JUNG-WOO, JIN MIN-JI [chung.juhee@joongang.co.kr]