Expert says North likely to ramp up production of munitions after Russia shipments

North Korea is likely to ramp up production of munitions after shipping thousands of containers full of suspected artillery ammunition and weapons to Russia, according to an expert interviewed by the JoongAng Ilbo.

In footage broadcast by the North's state-controlled Korean Central Television on Aug. 7, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspects a factory where 122-millimeter artillery ammunition is manufactured. [YONHAP]

North Korea is likely to ramp up production of munitions after shipping thousands of containers full of suspected artillery ammunition and weapons to Russia, according to an expert interviewed by the JoongAng Ilbo.

“North Korea is locked into the inter-Korean standoff, so if they gave up [weapons from] its inventory, they will have to replenish their supplies by a similar amount,” an expert told the JoongAng Ilbo on condition of anonymity.

An official from the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) told reporters last week that Seoul’s military intelligence estimates about 2,000 containers of military equipment and munitions were shipped from Rajin, North Hamgyong Province, to Vladivostok in the Russian Far East.

The JCS believes that the containers could contain more than 200,000 rounds of 122-millimeter artillery shells or more than 1 million 152-millimeter shells, as well as other weapons, such as T-series tank ammunition, anti-tank guided missiles, rocket launchers, rifles and even possibly SRBMs.

The expert interviewed by the JoongAng Ilbo said that North Korea “seems to have provided Russia with six months’ worth of production,” based on current South Korean estimates of the North’s annual production capabilities.

“Although exact production figures cannot be determined because the manufacturing process and raw materials vary according to the different types of artillery shells, we estimate that the North can produce around 2 million 152-millimeter shells per year,” he said.

The expert said that supplying Russia with six months’ worth of domestic artillery production was likely not an easy decision for North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who agreed to heighten military and technological cooperation with Russian President Vladimir Putin at a rare summit held in September at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Russian Far East.

Their meeting venue, joint visits to Russian aircraft factories and Putin’s comments to Russian state media suggested that Moscow could be willing to assist Pyongyang with its spy satellite and weapons programs in return for North Korean armaments.

Kim pledged that his regime would “always stand with Russia” in its “special military operation,” referring to the latter’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Kim has to maintain his own military readiness posture against South Korea and the United States,” said the expert interviewed by the JoongAng Ilbo, who said it was “now likely that North Korean weapons factories are likely to operate full-time in the future.”

The expert also said that the North’s annual production estimate of 2 million 152-millimeter artillery shells is premised on peacetime manufacturing rates.

“If the North Korean regime mobilizes all of its weapons production capabilities, it could theoretically produce two to three times more,” he said.

In a report issued on Sept. 14, the Stimson Center’s 38 North think tank noted that the North’s “military-industrial complex” does not need to “turn to other sectors of the economy for raw materials and other inputs.”

South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) has estimated that Russia has already received about 1 million artillery shells from North Korea, which it believes would meet Russia’s battlefield needs for about two months.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) issued a report last month that offered a different estimate of the North’s ammunition shipments but was premised on a similar Russian consumption rate.

Col. Ants Kiviselg, the chief of the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center, was quoted by the ISW as saying the North may have provided 300,000-500,000 pieces of ammunition to Russia, which can last up to one month at the current daily firing rate of around 10,000 shells a day.

The expert interviewed by the JoongAng Ilbo warned that if Kim Jong-un fully commits to supporting the Russian war effort, Moscow could stockpile ammunition supplies that could last at least several more months.

Troy Stangarone, who serves as a senior director at the U.S.-based Korea Economic Institute (KEI), recently expressed concern that North Korea “is likely to provide millions of shells to Russia” at a forum hosted by South Korea’s Unification Ministry on Nov. 1.

The North Korean leader has also hinted that his regime could pour more resources into weapons production.

During Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s visit to a previously undisclosed North Korean weapons factory in early August, Kim referred to his regime as running a “defense economy,” suggesting it could seek much needed foreign currency and support by manufacturing and selling weapons abroad.

Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, analyzed North Korean state media photos of their visit and concluded the factories they inspected could be Kanggye Tractor Plant and Kanggye General Precision Machine Plant in Chagang Province.

Other plants depicted in state media photos of Kim and Shoigu’s weapons factory tours indicated the pair inspected Thaesong Machine Plant, where the North is believed to manufacture its medium- and long-range ballistic missiles, and the January 18 General Machinery Complex, where it produces missile and tank components.

Both plants are located in South Pyongan Province.

In its Sept. 14 report, 38 North predicted that weapons exports to Russia would likely provide a short-term boost to the North Korean state and regions where the factories are located, but also cautioned the benefits could be limited.

“When Russia’s warfare in Ukraine eventually winds down or ends, the demand for North Korean weapons will very likely drop as quickly as it has risen,” the think tank said, adding that spillover effects of arms development “will be limited without radical changes to the [North Korean] economic system.”

BY CHUNG YEONG-GYO, MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]