North Korea's nuclear arsenal 'on pace' to challenge homeland missile defense, says U.S. congressional report

The U.S. Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture assessed that Pyongyang is "probably preparing to test a nuclear device to facilitate tactical nuclear operations" and is seen to be maintaining a stockpile of a few dozen nuclear warheads.

U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby speaks during a press briefing at the White House in Washington on Thursday. [AP/YONHAP]

North Korea is "on pace" to deploy enough nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) to possibly penetrate the American missile defense system, according to a U.S. congressional report.

The Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States further assessed that Pyongyang is "probably preparing to test a nuclear device to facilitate tactical nuclear operations" and is seen to be maintaining a stockpile of a few dozen nuclear warheads.

The 12-member commission issued its 145-page final report Thursday under the National Defense Authorization Act to examine U.S. long-term strategic posture amid "increasingly aggressive behaviors" of Russia and China, along with challenges posed by North Korea and Iran.

The commission was hand-picked by Congress last year to conduct a threat assessment, consider alterations to U.S. force posture and provide recommendations.

Its review of North Korea's threat from 2027 to 2035 found that the regime is "on pace to deploy nuclear-armed intercontinental range missiles in sufficient numbers that could potentially challenge U.S. homeland ground-based ballistic missile defenses."

The report pinpointed the two main objectives of the North's national security strategy as ensuring the long-term security of the Kim Jong-un regime and retaining the capability to exercise dominant influence over the Korean Peninsula.

North Korea has "established command and control and open-ended conditions for nuclear use" by enacting a law affirming its self-proclaimed status as a nuclear power recently, the report said.

It noted that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will remain firmly committed to expanding the country's nuclear weapons arsenal and, as the supreme commander, is the "sole release authority for nuclear weapons" under the so-called "firepower strike plan" designed mainly for use against the United States.

The United States maintains integrated air and missile defenses, or IAMD, "that can deter and defeat coercive attacks by Russia and China, and determine the capabilities needed to stay ahead of the North Korean threat," the report said.

The report also found that Pyongyang's "cyber capabilities support military operations and national security goals" by providing the regime "a way to influence and intimidate its adversaries," noting North Korean hackers stole some $1.7 billion last year.

The commission stressed that the U.S. nuclear umbrella protects its allies, "thereby removing the need for them to develop their own nuclear weapons." Some South Korean politicians have raised the need to develop a nuclear arsenal to counter the North's threat.

In turn, President Yoon Suk Yeol and U.S. President Joe Biden announced the Washington Declaration during their bilateral summit in April, establishing a new Nuclear Consultative Group to strengthen U.S. extended deterrence.

The commission said it "supports the Washington Declaration and all ongoing efforts with Japan and South Korea to strengthen extended deterrence consultations."

The White House on Thursday played down any concerns that the Israel-Hamas conflict could negatively affect the United States' security commitments to South Korea.

When asked how the Middle East crisis affects U.S. security strategy on the Korean Peninsula, John Kirby, the White House National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications, said, "We're not worried about our ability to do all those things."

In a press briefing in Washington, Kirby said that the United States is "a big enough, strong enough nation, and we've got global responsibilities to look after our national security interests anywhere and everywhere."

However, he said he couldn't confirm reports that the Hamas militant group used North Korean rockets for its surprise attack on Israel.

This comes after reports that North Korea's 85-millimeter F-7, a surface-to-surface fragmentation rocket, was spotted in a video during the Hamas attack last Saturday.

Pyongyang, in turn, Friday dismissed reports that the Hamas militants used North Korean rockets.

Ri Kwang-song, a North Korean analyst on international affairs, said in a commentary carried by KCNA Friday that the U.S. administration's press and experts are "spreading a groundless and false rumor that 'North Korea's weapons' seemed to be used for the attack on Israel."

BY SARAH KIM [kim.sarah@joongang.co.kr]