Trading weapons for nuclear arms technology: A new Cold War sweeps through Northeast Asia

Foreign and defense ministers sit beside Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin: North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin take part in a summit at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Amur, Russia on September 13 along with the North Korean delegation (left photo from the right: Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui; Pak Jong-chon, director of military affairs in the Workers’ Party of Korea; and Defense Minister Kang Sun-nam) and the Russian delegation (right photo from the right: Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov, and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov). TASS-EPA-Yonhap News

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin met for the first time in four years and five months on September 13 and practically affirmed a plan for Russia to provide technological support for North Korea’s development of a military reconnaissance satellite. The two state leaders publicly declared their willingness to strengthen bilateral relations with a focus on military cooperation. As North Korea continues to upgrade its nuclear capabilities and the confrontation between blocs intensifies, the murky cloud of a new Cold War is expected to grow darker over the Korean Peninsula.

That the two state leaders met at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Amur, Russia suggested that military cooperation was a key agenda in the latest summit.

The summit took into consideration the situation of North Korea, which has come across a technological challenge in its research to upgrade nuclear arms. The North has already failed twice in launching a military reconnaissance satellite, which was top priority among this year’s state tasks. Thus, technological advances are urgent if North Korea is to succeed in a launch scheduled this coming October. In the 8th Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea in 2021, the party presented the development of advanced nuclear weapons in the following five years as its major task. To achieve this goal, the North needs technological support from Russia, such as the technology to guide multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), the technology for reentry to the atmosphere for a launch at a standard angle, and the technology to build a nuclear-powered submarine and produce massive nuclear warheads.

In his opening remark, Chairman Kim Jong-un said, “I find it an honor to be given this opportunity to obtain a deeper understanding of the current state and future of a space powerhouse in this launch site (space center), which is like the heart of the space powerhouse.” Before entering the cosmodrome, when the press asked if Russia was going to help North Korea manufacture a satellite, President Putin said that was why they were there and added that the North Korean leader showed a keen interest in rocket technology.

Russia is likely to have asked North Korea for weapons to use in the war against Ukraine in exchange for technological support. Dmitry Peskov, the presidential press secretary practically acknowledged this when he mentioned that as neighboring countries, the two countries were carrying out cooperation in sensitive areas that should not be announced or disclosed.

At the dinner following the meeting, Chairman Kim mentioned Russia’s “military operation” and expressed strong support for Russia’s war against Ukraine. It suggested that the two leaders had shared views on North Korea’s supply of weapons to Russia.

It was also meaningful how Chairman Kim, in his opening remark, emphasized North Korea’s relations with Russia as top priority in the country’s foreign policy. The North Korean leader put more weight on the military relationship with Russia rather than on its ties with China, which the country absolutely depends on for its economy, and showed his determination to concentrate on developing nuclear arms.

The two leaders could also have discussed strengthening economic cooperation as well. Chairman Kim said, “We have a lot of problems on which we must receive help,” so the two countries could have discussed expanding Russia’s economic support for North Korea.

The two men also discussed the political situation on the Korean Peninsula and in Europe. During the dinner, Chairman Kim said the two discussed the issue in depth and added, “We showed a satisfying agreement on the view that we must further strengthen strategic and tactical cooperation as well as solidarity and support.” As for the situation on the Korean Peninsula, South Korea, the United States and Japan decided to strengthen their cooperation in security to a quasi-alliance level in the summit at Camp David last month, and U.S. strategic assets have been present in the Korean Peninsula at all times since the Washington Declaration between South Korea and the U.S. in April. Chairman Kim and President Putin are likely to have expressed concern about such a situation and agreed to a joint response.

The ripples that stronger military cooperation between North Korea and Russia will trigger in the Korean Peninsula are significant. If North Korea further strengthens its nuclear armament with help from Russia, it will further aggravate nuclear threats on the Korean Peninsula.

If the leaders of North Korea and Russia reached a consensus on conducting joint military exercises, tensions might rise with a military confrontation between the South Korea, the U.S. and Japan on one side and North Korea and Russia on the other in the East Seat. If Russia crosses the “redline” to form closer military ties with the North, it will inevitably aggravate Moscow’s ties with Seoul. Thus, experts expect a new Cold War layout to become more evident in Northeast Asia.

Experts also voiced concerns that if the two leaders discussed easing sanctions on North Korea, it could weaken the cooperation of the international community against North Korea’s nuclear program. Russia, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, has been interfering with additional sanctions on North Korea. In this situation, the latest summit could end up rendering the act of imposing sanctions against North Korea useless.

The impact on the war in Ukraine is not likely to be small either. If Russia, isolated by the international community, secures a sure ally and even receives weapons, this can further prolong the war. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which has been standing up to Russia, could take action against North Korea and further strengthen cooperation with South Korea, the U.S, and Japan for security in Northeast Asia. This is a scenario North Korea has feared, which is why some experts claim the latest summit might end up as an own goal for North Korea.