A dangerous honeymoon

The meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Russia marks a new inflection point in the global order and for the Korean Peninsula.

Kim Byung-yeonThe author is a professor of economics and the head of the Institute of Future Strategy at Seoul National University. The meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Russia marks a new inflection point in the global order and for the Korean Peninsula. We are going through the age of complex geopolitics of global powers complicated by the North Korean issue. The ideological conflict is timed with the rise of North Korean nuclear power amid the hegemonic contest between the United States and China and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The actions related to North Korea by China and Russia can have a direct — and existential — impact on South Korea. Pyongyang is out to capitalize on this opportunity. How will this period of conflict pan out? What will be the outcome of the Kim-Putin summit?

It is possible that the isolated pair can strike a major deal. They could hide their agreements from the outside world through figurative rhetoric in the statement. But their actions will tell a different tale. North Korea can supply not just conventional munitions and rockets, but also short-range missiles and drones, while Russia provides the hard cash, energy and foods North Korea desperately needs on top of advanced defense technology. The ominous signs were already there.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu traveled to Pyongyang in late July to attend Pyongyang’s military parade marking the 70th anniversary of the armistice that ended the Korean War. He was guided personally by the North Korean leader to an arms exhibition hall displaying the latest North Korean missiles and unmanned vehicles.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, right, invites Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, third from right, to a weapons exhibition hall in Pyongyang, July 27 — the Victory Day the country calls to describe the Korean War Armistice — to pave the way for North Korea to sell weapons to Russia for its war against Ukraine. [NEWS1]

In August, Kim Jong-un visited major munitions factories and ordered a drastic increase in the production of missiles and other weapons. He may be envisioning a good business deal by selling short-term ballistic missiles that cost many times greater than regular artillery shells. Some expect a dramatic outcome from the Kim-Putin meeting. But various factors — geopolitics and international responses — must be considered in bilateral relationship beyond the level of what both leaders mutually need.

The actual deal could be smaller than expected. Russia could import North Korean shells and rockets in return for oil, gas and flour. Pyongyang would decline payment in the Russian ruble, and Moscow, running short of hard cash, cannot afford to pay in greenbacks.

Kim also could negotiate for Russia’s acceptance of more North Korean workers. But Moscow won’t easily give away its advanced technologies, which could risk a heavy international condemnation for abandoning the basic responsibility of a permanent member of the UN Security Council. It would also deeply damage Russia’s relationship with South Korea, the United States and Japan — a consequence that could last beyond the Ukraine War. The Kim-Putin deal also may trigger a more aggressive role from South Korea and Japan to back Ukraine in the ongoing war.

Moscow would wish to learn if Kim is trustworthy — and check North Korea’s weapons manufacturing capacity — through a low-level deal. Elite diplomats of Moscow traditionally tend to be prudent. As imperialistic Putin is highly suspicious and traumatic about being betrayed, he would likely start with a relatively safe economic deal rather than jumping into a deep military and diplomatic relationship with Pyongyang. He needs to check if North Korea could be trusted to timely supply mass-scale weapons despite its chronic shortages of raw materials, equipment, parts and electricity.

Kim Jong-un also is risking a high stake by cozying up with Moscow. He must watch the response from Beijing, which would hardly be happy with the honeymoon of the pair. Pyongyang coupling with Moscow can pose a potential headache for Beijing. A North Korea backed by Russia and with advanced nuclear weapons on its hands may no longer kowtow to Beijing. China could attempt to tame North Korea by cutting back on its economic assistance to the country. The Chinese deputy prime minister may have made the warning during his recent visit to Pyongyang. North Korea supplying a large stock of ammunition to Russia could completely wipe out opportunities to improve its relations with the United States. The high-stake gamble would hinge on the results of the war in Ukraine. If Russia is defeated or Putin is ousted, Kim also could go down.

What can be the best response from South Korea under such circumstances? First of all, it must detect the chokepoints of North Korea’s weapons production to disrupt the channels. For example, South Korea can demand heavier sanctions on the North to block the funneling of ammonium nitrate essential for explosives through illegal channels or by feigning the stock as fertilizers bound for North Korea. Second, Seoul can unite with Washington and Tokyo to send a strong warning to Moscow and Pyongyang for their dangerous military closeness. They could warn of a trilateral engagement in the Ukrainian war should Moscow actually get weapons from Pyongyang. Thirdly, Seoul must leverage Beijing’s influence over Pyongyang. The government must persuade Washington to accommodate the North Korean factor in its strategy on China.

A defense deal between the two dangerous leaders during perilous times foreshows heavy turmoil in the global order. The intimacy between Pyongyang and Moscow can be damaging to both Koreas. But the consequences could be dearer for North Korea. Kim must beware of storming into the tumultuous sea and putting his life and the fate of his country at stake.

Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.