Time for pre-emptive, tailored diplomacy

The clarity in Korea’s foreign policy must be backed by a sober understanding of the U.S. election and political circumstances.

Ha Sang-eung

The author is a political science professor at Sogang University. Korea’s foreign policy has undergone significant changes lately. Seoul pushed to improve its relations with Tokyo regardless of the negative opinion at home, while reaffirming its strong alliance with Washington. This has led to a tightening of the trilateral connection among Korea, the United States and Japan, which is called a “value-based alliance” by some experts.

Seoul’s foreign policy has become much clearer than in the past. But that doesn’t mean the sources for insecurity have disappeared or lessened. The uneasiness and risks of Korea’s diplomacy stems largely from the political circumstances in the United States before next years’ presidential election. As Richard Haass, the president of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), recently told the New York Times, America poses the most serious danger to the security of the world right now. And the culprit behind the insecurity and uncertainty of the world is former U.S. president, Donald Trump.

Despite his judicial risks from four indictments earlier, Trump is most likely to be nominated in the Republican primaries to run in the next presidential race. Whether he can re-enter the White House even after being nominated cannot be known. But if he does make it, what Seoul and Washington had achieved over the recent years would become moot, as Trump — vengeful against President Joe Biden more than anyone else — will most likely upend everything done under Biden’s Democratic administration.

Just like Trump had completely reversed the policies of his predecessor Barack Obama in his first term, he could do the same in his second term at the White House. Due to the low probability of Trump backing Ukraine in the war against Russia, the “value-based alliance” among likeminded countries could be shattered. The Washington Declaration at Camp David will likely be trashed, and instead the new administration may bring back the card of withdrawing U.S. troops out of Korea.

To stabilize the bilateral and trilateral ties among Korea, the United States and Japan, it would be best if Biden is re-elected. Biden defeated Trump by recapturing the so-called Rust Belt — Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — which the Democrats lost to Trump in 2016. Biden’s victory was also possible at the time primarily thanks to his triumph in the traditional Republican voting bases of Arizona and Georgia.

Biden has a strong chance of defending his title if he once again prevails in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania next year. He obviously would wish to win votes from the white working class without college degrees. On the campaign trail, Biden appealed to these voters by stressing that the monumental laws like the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chips Act helped create well-paid jobs for them and promised to keep China at bay through industrial policies that buttress the middle class.

It is noticeable that Biden is leveraging the China policy for his campaign. Shortly after Biden’s inauguration in January 2021, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken even used dramatic wording such as “foreign policy for the middle class,” promising to put the well-being of working Americans at the top of U.S. foreign policy.

The core value of the Biden administration is free democracy sustained by strong middle-class demographics. As he is desperate to score points in the Rust Belt ahead of the election, Biden could prioritize the interests of the middle class over the values of democracy. Under such volatile circumstances, Korea can send to Washington the message underscoring the middle-class strength in pitching for the importance of the continuity in the Korea-U.S. alliance and the value alliance.

The message can go like this: Korea can argue that the country was able to achieve wondrous economic prosperity from war rubbles thanks to the United States. The growth engine had been the middle-wealth stratum. The middle class, as the spine of society, must be strong to restore free democracy. The latest string of Korean investments in the United States would help greatly in toughening the middle working class. Korea is contributing to the strengthening of the supply chain for countries sharing free democracy.

Such a message could be both persuasive for Biden as well as Trump, both desperate to win votes in the Rust Belt. The clarity in Korea’s foreign policy must be backed by a sober understanding of the U.S. election and political circumstances.

Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.