A nuclear push at the cost of starvation

We must make the North Korean people see that they will gain nothing from provocations and that the brinkmanship no longer works.

Kim Ho-HongThe author is the director of the North Korea Strategy Center at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s words and actions are becoming harsher. At a meeting between the top military leaders, Kim targeted U.S. military bases in Seoul and Pyeongtaek after reviewing the frontline attack operation plans and combat documents. Aboard an armored vehicle, he urged North Korea to prepare for war. Such moves can be interpreted as an intention to expand military power and unite the regime following the Camp David summit among South Korean, Japanese and U.S. leaders on Aug. 18 and the joint Ulchi Freedom Shield military exercise between South Korea and the United States. Taking into account Kim’s recklessness, actual provocations cannot be ruled out, so we need thorough and meticulous preparations now more than ever.

In 2012, Kim’s first year in power, the North Korean leader made two pledges in his speech marking the centennial anniversary of the birth of the late Kim Il Sung. In addition to strengthening defense power, Kim promised that the North Korean people would not have to tighten their belts. To accomplish the goal, Kim proposed the parallel development policy of the economy and nuclear arms programs. He promised to kill two birds with one stone — to become a nuclear power and resolve economic problems.

Accordingly, Kim put all efforts into improving the North’s nuclear and missile capabilities and hurriedly declared in November 2017 that the North has completed its nuclear power. He then switched to economic policy. But his plan to develop the economy by using nuclear weapons as a card hit a wall when the 2019 North-U.S. summit in Hanoi broke down without a deal. The falsehood of the parallel development policy was proven.

Nevertheless, Kim continues his pursuit of nuclear development. A five-year plan for weapons system development was announced at the 8th Party Congress in early 2021. The North is concentrating all its efforts on the nine major military projects, including development of tactical nuclear weapons, hypersonic missiles, underwater-launched nuclear strategic weapons, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, nuclear submarines, unmanned aerial vehicles, super-large nuclear warheads and solid fuel-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).

Except for the nuclear submarines, those projects are progressing at a rapid pace, seeing how North Korea made public those weapons in just two and a half years. That means the North is investing all possible resources into it. The hypersonic missile Hwasong-8 program is almost complete, and the North has been improving the capabilities of the solid-fuel ICBMs since they were unveiled at the military parade in early February. The underwater-launched strategic missile (Haeil) and tactical nuclear warhead (Hwasan-31) were already unveiled at the end of March.

North Korea exposed its strategic unmanned reconnaissance aircraft (Saetbyol-4), attack drones (Saetbyol-9) and nuclear torpedoes at an exhibition of unmanned military equipment and on the “Victory Day” military parade, both attended by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu at the end of July. Although skepticism is high regarding the actual performance of these weapons, Kim has been promoting them as his greatest achievements. North Korean media outlets are also praising them by saying that he has completed great accomplishments within an unimaginably short period of time.

But the important thing is making ends meet. While Kim uses all resources to strengthen military capabilities, the people’s lives have become hopeless. International organizations believe that about 45.5 percent of the North Korean populations is malnourished. According to the National Intelligence Service, the prices of corn and rice have soared and the food shortage became so severe that the number of deaths from starvation was more than double the average of the past five years, leading to mass protests. This means the situation is as serious as the “Arduous March” of the 1990s.

The basis of running a country is the people’s livelihoods. Jeong Yak-yong, the great philosopher from the Joseon Dynasty, wrote in Mokminsimseo (Admonitions on Governing the People) that the first duty of a ruler is to take care of the lives of the people. Even North Korea’s founding father Kim Il Sung stressed that “rice is socialism.” But over three generations, the North Korea regime has failed to resolve the issue of making ends meet for the people.

The cause of starvation and suffering for the North Korean people is neither natural disasters nor the Covid-19 pandemic. It is an inevitable offshoot of the structural contradictions of the unique socialist system and Kim’s failed policies. Kim’s strategy took the wrong first step. He has set goals that cannot coexist — nuclear development and economic growth — and drove the people into fear and hunger by creating a crisis. The Kim regime is caught in a dilemma as its goal is making the people’s lives more miserable.

We must make the North Korean leader change his plan for survival. The Yoon Suk Yeol administration’s North Korea policy also must focus on this. We must make the North Korean people see that they will gain nothing from provocations and that the brinkmanship no longer works. Even if it takes some time for Kim to change his thoughts and actions, we must pursue a consistent policy based on firm principles.

Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.