Population in June drops by the biggest margin: Margin could increase further next year

The nursery at a university hospital in Seoul. Kyunghyang Shinmun Archives

As the nation’s fertility rate drops and society ages at a faster rate, the population in June dropped by the biggest margin ever for the month of June.

On September 4, according to the National Statistical Information Service, a data portal run by Statistics Korea, the June population naturally decreased by 8,205, the biggest drop in June since related statistics were first collected in 1981.

The number of newborn babies reached 18,615, the lowest ever for the month of June, whereas the number of deaths was 26,820, a record high for the same month.

The accumulated natural decrease in population in the first half of this year was 52,032, making it likely for a natural decrease of around 100,000 this year.

The yearly natural increase in population reached nearly 515,000 in 1983. Since then, it continued to decline to 482,000 in 1993; 249,000 in 2003; and 170,000 in 2013. Then in 2020, the population shifted to a natural decrease (-33,000) for the first time. The population shrunk by 57,000 and 124,000 in 2021 and 2022 respectively, showing that the natural decrease was growing. It is certain that the population will continue a natural decrease this year, for the fourth consecutive year.

According to Population Projections: 2020-2070 released by Statistics Korea in 2021, the natural decrease was expected to gradually grow from 33,000 in 2020 to 53,000 in 2021; 79,000 in 2022; and 101,000 in 2023, until it peaked at 110,000 in 2024. Then authorities expected the margin to shrink for some time and estimated the natural decrease to be around 107,000 in 2025 and 104,000 in 2026.

The projections were based on a scenario of median values, such as a medium fertility rate and life expectancy. The population is actually falling much faster than the projections. According to the projections, the total fertility rate (the number of children a woman is expected to give birth to in her lifetime) was expected to drop to 0.77 in 2022; 0.73 in 2023; and 0.70 in 2024, then bounce back to 0.74 in 2025, and 0.78 in 2026.

But the total fertility rate in the second quarter this year recorded 0.70, making it likely for the yearly total fertility rate to fall below 0.7. Thus experts voice concerns that the downward trend in our population is likely to get worse.