The population of the Republic of Korea shrinks further: Will the total fertility rate fall below 0.7?

Illustration by Kim Sang-min

The number of babies born in the second quarter of this year fell significantly to another record low. The total fertility rate also dropped to 0.7 in the second quarter, increasing the likelihood of this year’s rate falling below 0.7.

The government has spent a huge amount of the budget for over fifteen years to resolve the low birth rate, but the fertility rate continued to plunge. The Yoon Suk-yeol government also presented measures, such as expanding the parent allowance in next year’s budget plan and extending paid parental leave, but it won’t be easy to reverse the downward trend of the fertility rate.

According to the demographic trend in June and Q2 of 2023 released by Statistics Korea on August 30, the number of newborn babies in the second quarter was 56,087. This was 4,062 (6.8%) lower than the same period last year, and it was the lowest quarterly figure ever. In June alone, 18,615 babies were born. This was 300 less than June 2022, and the downward trend continued for the 91st consecutive month.

The total fertility rate in the second quarter was 0.701, 0.05 down year-over-year. It was also slightly lower than the fourth quarter last year (0.702), also the lowest since related statistics were collected. The Q2 total fertility rate has constantly dropped after it peaked in 2012 (1.26).

A regional analysis showed that the total fertility rate in major cities, such as Seoul (0.53), Busan (0.66), Daegu (0.67), and Incheon (0.67) fell short of the national average. Rural areas with a small population, such as Jeollanam-do (0.94), Gangwon-do (0.87) and Chungcheongbuk-do (0.87), had a total fertility rate that was higher than the average. The rate in Sejong (0.94), which had the highest total fertility rate in the nation, also dropped below one for the first time in the second quarter this year. Given that the total fertility rate usually drops further in the second half of the year, this year’s rate is likely to fall even more. Some say that it could drop below 0.7 for the first time in history.

According to the birth-related statistics for 2022, which Statistics Korea released Wednesday, the nation’s total fertility rate last year was 0.78, 0.03 (3.7%) lower than a year ago. South Korea is the only country among the member states of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) that has a total fertility rate lower than one.

The government is pouring in a massive amount of money to increase the fertility rate, but “all medicine has proved useless.” The government poured in nearly 280 trillion won of fiscal resources to respond to the low birth rate for sixteen years from 2006 to 2021. But during this period, the total fertility rate dropped from 1.13 to 0.81.

Basically, the environment in which to have and raise children is deteriorating as real estate prices soar and the working environment makes it difficult for couples to raise children while developing their careers. Thus, more and more young people are reluctant to get married and have and raise children. According to Statistics Korea, as of last year, among people ages 19-34 only 36.4% considered marriage in a positive light. This was more than a 20% drop from a decade ago (56.5%). Also, more than half of the young people (53.5%) thought there was no need to have children even if they got married.

The Yoon Suk-yeol government said it would present government-wide measures to tackle low fertility, but so far they have not released anything effective. Na Kyung-won also drew much sarcasm when she resigned from vice chair of the Presidential Committee on Aging Society and Population Policy ahead of the People Power Party convention in March.