Korea’s Q2 fertility rate drops to record low of 0.7 amid population decline

[Photo by Yonhap]

South Korea’s total fertility rate has hit an all-time low in the second quarter of this year, with the number of newborns declining for the ninth consecutive month. At this pace, the country’s total fertility rate this year is poised to drop even lower than last year’s historically low figure of 0.78.

According to Statistics Korea on Wednesday, the total fertility rate for the second quarter stood at 0.7. This represents a decrease of 0.05 compared to the same period last year.

There were 56,087 births during the period, down 6.8 percent. It is the lowest forsecond-quarter births. The number of deaths, in the meantime, fell 7.9 percent to 83,359 in the second quarter from a year earlier, which had seen a spike in COVID-19-related deaths.

In June, there were 18,615 births, down 1.6 percent from last year. The decline in births has persisted for nine consecutive months since October 2022. Deaths in June amounted to 26,820, up 7.6 percent.

With deaths surpassing births, the population has seen a natural decline for 44 consecutive months since November 2019. In the second quarter alone, the population diminished by 27,272, with all provinces except Sejong City witnessing a natural decline.

There is growing concern that this year’s total fertility rate may fall even lower than last year’s figure of 0.78, which was already a record low. The first half of this year has witnessed a total fertility rate of 0.76, lower than the previous year’s 0.81.

The number of newborns tends to be higher at the beginning of the year and gradually decreases towards the end. Unless there is a significant rebound in the total fertility rate until the end of the second half, surpassing last year’s 0.78 seems unlikely.

As per birth statistics confirmed by Statistics Korea for the previous year, the number of births totaled 249,000, down 4.4 percent from the previous year. This marks the first instance where the number of births has fallen below 250,000 since the compilation of birth statistics. It took 30 years for newborns to decrease from 1 million in 1970 to half that figure in 2002.

However, within less than a decade, the number further decreased to 484,550 in 2012.

The average age for childbirth was 33.5, a slight increase of 0.2 years from the previous year. The age at which individuals have their first child increased to 33 years. For second births, it was 34.2 years, and for third births, it rose to 35.6 years.

In contrast to the average total fertility rate of 1.58 among member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) as of 2021, Korea’s rate remained the lowest, with a total fertility rate of 0.81, being the only country to fall below the threshold of 1.