Korea, U.S., Japan open new chapter of cooperation at trilateral summit

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol holds a joint press conference with U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida after the Korea-U.S. and Japan summit at Camp David, a U.S. presidential villa in Maryland, on Aug. 18 (local). [Photo by Lee Seung-hwan]

The latest trilateral summit among South Korea, U.S., and Japan at Camp David in Maryland on Friday has resulted in a historic moment that reshapes the diplomatic landscape of Northeast Asia, according to industry insiders.

They note that the post-World War II alliances centered around the U.S, with alliances between the U.S. and Korea and the U.S. and Japan, while after the Camp David summit, it is now a trilateral partnership. This comes 70 years after the formation of the trilateral cooperative structure through the 1951 U.S.-Japan Security Treaty and the 1953 U.S.-South Korea Mutual Defense Treaty.

“First of all, this trilateral cooperation amongst our three countries has opened a new chapter,” said Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol at a joint press conference following the summit. “In the past, it was about individual issues that we sought cooperation among ourselves. But now, as we have opened a new chapter in our cooperation for security, economy, science and technology, and development cooperation for the Global South, health, and women - across all of these issues, our three countries decided to closely work together.”

“So it’s much more comprehensive in nature,” Yoon added.

Experts, in the meantime, see the success of the new diplomatic landscape hinging on its sustainability.

“Multilateral relations are likely to be less cohesive and dense than bilateral ones like South Korea-U.S. and U.S.-Japan relations,” said Hong Min, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification. “The key will be for the three countries to secure the sustainability of their cooperation.”

There are also looming challenges from North Korea, China, and Russia, Hong said. “There’s a possibility that North Korea could launch a series of provocative actions and China could react very strongly to the trilateral military exercises among South Korea, the U.S. and Japan.”

There are also doubts over whether South Korea could withstand such pressures.

Ahn Ho-young, former South Korean ambassador to the U.S., noted that Chinese state media are focusing criticism on South Korea, not the U.S. or Japan, indicating that Korea is seen as the “weak link.”

Public sentiment in South Korea and Japan, rooted in the past, is also a hurdle to overcome.

The immediate issue of Fukushima contaminated water, for example, presents a potential source of conflict.

“When Yoon and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida return home, the test will begin as they face domestic reactions to the outcomes of the trilateral summit,” said Richard Fontaine, president of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS).

Unlike the South Korea-U.S. alliance, there is less public consensus on military cooperation between South Korea and Japan.

“It will not be difficult for the three countries to make progress in the economic, technological, and cyber sectors, but it will be difficult to find consensus on traditional security,” said Kim Sook-hyun, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Strategy.

Next year’s general elections in South Korea and the presidential elections in the U.S. are also factors.

The U.S. is reportedly considering creating safeguards, including congressional approval, to ensure the certainty of the latest trilateral agreement.

This would aim to prevent a change of government in next year’s presidential election from shaking the South Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperative framework.

The outcome of the general elections in South Korea will also be closely watched as the country’s ruling and opposition parties are sharply divided in their views of China and Japan, experts say.