Global electric vehicle production to quadruple by 2030

[Photo provided by Hyundai Motor]

Global car manufacturers are speeding up their transition from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles, with an estimated 500 EV models and 40 million units to be rolled out by 2030, a five-fold increase from the roughly 100 EV models and 8 million units produced last year.

Total global car sales last year reached 75 million units, including gasoline-powered vehicles, and in 2030 half of the vehicles sold will be EVs. Major automakers are competitively announcing their electrification strategies.

Automakers worldwide see 2030 as a pivotal year in their transition to electric vehicles as major countries will begin to regulate the sale of internal combustion engines from that year. Europe will ban the sale of conventional internal combustion engines in 2035, except for vehicles running on synthetic fuels. China plans to stop producing internal combustion engines in 2035. The U.S. has pledged to convert two out of every three new cars sold in the U.S. to EVs by 2032.

Hyundai Motor Group plans to produce 3.64 million EVs by 2030, while Toyota Group aims for 3.5 million, BYD for 3 million, Ford for 3 million and Honda for 2 million.

While Volkswagen Group, Mercedes-Benz Group, BMW Group, Stellantis and General Motors did not specify how many units they will produce and sell in the future, they already hinted at future market targets through their EV conversion rates, electrification investments and battery production capacity.

Chinese car manufacturers such as BYD, Shanghai Automobile, Geely Auto and Chery Automobile have not provided mid- to long-term production and sales targets. China’s Future Vehicle Industry Policy Organization estimates the country’s sales of eco-friendly vehicles, including all-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, at 32 million units in 2030, which is likely to be realized as the government accelerates a shift to electrification.

Tesla, the leading EV maker, has a stated goal of producing 20 million cars in 2030. But the industry views this number as unrealistic. For the goal to be realized, one out of every four vehicles sold in the world would have to be a Tesla product. Regardless of feasibility, Tesla has been increasing its EV production every year, to 930,000 in 2021 to 1.37 million last year from 510,000 units in 2020.